In order to define the prognostic factors for metastatic renal carcinoma, we reviewed 134 patients who were treated from 1971 through 1986. Survival rates were 72, 45, and 25% at 6, 12, and 18 months, respectively. Seventeen variables were tested using the logrank test. Improved survival was correlated with normal performance status, and an absence of fever, weight loss, hepatic metastasis, and lung metastasis (or, if lung metastasis was present, less than 2 cm in diameter and limited to one site), a disease-free interval, sedimentation rate less than 100, and renal surgery. Four variables retained significant value in the multivariate analysis: hepatic metastasis, lung metastasis, disease-free interval, and a variable combining the sedimentation rate and the weight loss (SWRL). Predictive survival rates based on these variables were calculated from the Cox model. Six subgroups of patients were identified. The estimation of survival is clinically of value for future phase II trials of chemotherapy in patients with adult metastatic renal carcinoma.

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