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For purposes of suggesting adaptive and policy options regarding the sustained use of forestry resources in Botswana, an analysis of the whole countrywide satellite data (showing the mean present distribution of vegetation in terms of species abundance and over all density) and the projection of vegetation cover changes using a simulation approach under different climatic scenarios were undertaken. The analysis revealed that changes in vegetation cover types due to human and natural causes have taken place since the first vegetation map was produced in 1971. In the southwest, the changes appear to be more towards an increasing prevalence of thorn trees; in the eastern part of the country where widespread bush encroachment is taking place, the higher population density suggests more human induced (agrarian-degradation) effects, while in the sparsely settled central Kalahari region, changes from tree savanna to shrubs may be indicative of the possible influence of climate with the associated effects of fires and local adaptations. Projection of future vegetation changes to about 2050 indicates degeneration of the major vegetation types due to the expected drying. Based on the projected changes in vegetation, current adaptive and policy arrangements are not adequate and as such a shift from the traditional adaptive approaches to community-based types is suggested. Defining forestry management units and adopting different management plans for the main vegetation stands that are found in Botswana are the major policy options.

20 21In this paper a set of criteria is proposed for the evaluation of the potential contribution of modelling 22 tools to strengthening the multifunctionality of agriculture. The four main areas of evaluation are (1) 23 policy relevance, (2) the temporal resolution and scope, (3) the degree to which spatial and socio-24 institutional scales and heterogeneity are addressed and (4) and environmental quality. Co-Viability Analysis generates viable trajectories of changes in farming 2 activities within a given set of constraints, to reach a desired future. In the application implemented in 3 the project, co-viability analysis focuses on grassland grazed by cattle which is also the breeding 4 habitat of two wader species at field level. 5The three modelling approaches differ in their policy relevance, in the ways that spatial and socio-6 institutional scales are addressed and in their levels of integration, but jointly cover most of the desired 7 capabilities for assessment of multifunctionality. Caveats were particularly identified in the integration 8 of the socio-institutional dimension and the related heterogeneity. Although the model portfolio did 9 not completely satisfy the demands of the of the set of evaluative criteria, it is concluded that, due to 10 their complementarities, in combination the three models could significantly contribute to further 11 development and strengthening of multifunctionality. 12 13

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