The article is devoted to the consideration of various practices of using mathematical modeling for analysis of economic processes. The article contains specific examples of the application of mathematical modeling methods, including methods based on tools of the theory of probability and mathematical statistics. The purpose of the article is to draw the reader's attention to the widespread applicability and effectiveness of methods and tools of economic and mathematical modeling for solving applied problems in the subject area. The study has shown that the use of individually adapted models based on the basic elements of the mathematical apparatus is effective for solving highly specialized applied problems including tasks connected with forecasting costs and assessing possible risks.

In conditions of market volatility, an important issue for industrial enterprises is the issue of creating an efficient resource allocation mechanism. The article gives an example about using of individually adapted economic and mathematical model for forecasting the cost of materials and purchased products, that takes into account both internal and external factors affecting the planning figures. In order to create an effective predictive model, an analysis was conducted of statistical data for the period from 2009 to 2016, data was represented by high-tech enterprises of the radioelectronic industry. As a result of analysis it was revealed the presence of statistical regularities in the nature of the distribution of the analyzed data.On the basis of the calculated distribution parameters, a prediction procedure was performed using the exponential smoothing method and the total projected cost of materials and purchased products was obtained. The use of elements of probability theory and mathematical statistics, as well as methods for forecasting time series as basic methods of the model allows to take into account probabilistic economic factors, such as, for example, a change in the exchange rate of a foreign currency, as well as the presence of defects in the production process. Application of a special mathematical apparatus provides an ability to create a flexible, individually-adapted forecasting model. As a result of application of the model intended for forecasting the cost of materials and purchased products at one of industry enterprises it was revealed that the developed model has lover calculation error than the method that is used at the enterprise at present. Thus economic and mathematical model allows increasing the efficiency of the enterprise’s planned system and ensuring a rational resource allocation by increasing the accuracy of the forecasting process.