Annotation. The developed method, which is a modification of the previously developed methods for constructing autoregressive models, is used to simulate the motion of space objects in the time series of their TLE elements. The modeling system has been developed that includes: determining the optimal volume of training samples in modeling time series of TLE elements; determination of the autoregression order for each variable (TLE element); determination of the optimal structure and identification of the parameters of the autoregressive model for each variable; identification of patterns of evolution of the mean square error of autoregressive models in time based on the modeling of time series of TLE elements according to the principle of "moving interval".