No abstract

We develop a new Data-Driven Phasic Word Identification (DDPWI) methodology to determine which words matter as the bitcoin pricing dynamic changes from one phase to another. With Google search volumes as a baseline, we find that Reddit submissions are both correlated with Google and have a comparable relationship with a variety of bitcoin metrics, using Spearman’s rho. Reddit provides complete access to the text of submissions. Rather than associating sentiment with market activity, we describe the DDPWI method for finding specific ‘price dynamic’ words associated with changes in the bitcoin pricing pattern through 2017 and 2018. We assess the significance of these changes using Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Tests with Bonferroni corrections. These price dynamic words are used to pull out associated words in the submissions thereby providing the context to their use. For example, the price dynamic word ‘ban’, which became significantly higher in frequency as prices fell, occurred in the context of both government regulation and internet companies banning cryptocurrency adverts. This approach could be used more generally to look at social media and discussion forums at a granular level identifying specific words that impact the metric under investigation rather than overall sentiment.

Abstract. The rise of cryptocurrency as a new sui generis asset class creates a need for a new classification scheme to cover the wide range of functionality for which tokens can be used. By differentiating tokens based on their functional attributes, cryptocurrency tokens can be categorised into crypto-transaction tokens (which act as a cash substitute); cryptofuel tokens (which underpin generic blockchain applications); and crypto-voucher tokens (which can be exchanged for a predefined asset). This classification is applied to identify important issues when considering whether to participate in a cryptocurrency system, such as the impact of potential forks, token supply expectations and the level of dependence on a few operators (entity-dependence). For crypto-transaction tokens (and crypto-fuel tokens if used in a similar or overlapping role) it shows the importance of the token being seen as a "better" form of money. For crypto-fuel tokens, the popularity of blockchain applications and the utility of the crypto-fuel system in application development is vital. For cryptovoucher tokens, the value of the underlying asset, the token's exchangeability for that asset and the importance of a digital representation should be considered by participants. The interplay between fundamentals and speculation as drivers of price is considered.