Background Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses a major threat to human health around the world. Previous publications have estimated the effect of AMR on incidence, deaths, hospital length of stay, and health-care costs for specific pathogen-drug combinations in select locations. To our knowledge, this study presents the most comprehensive estimates of AMR burden to date. MethodsWe estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to and associated with bacterial AMR for 23 pathogens and 88 pathogen-drug combinations in 204 countries and territories in 2019. We obtained data from systematic literature reviews, hospital systems, surveillance systems, and other sources, covering 471 million individual records or isolates and 7585 study-location-years. We used predictive statistical modelling to produce estimates of AMR burden for all locations, including for locations with no data. Our approach can be divided into five broad components: number of deaths where infection played a role, proportion of infectious deaths attributable to a given infectious syndrome, proportion of infectious syndrome deaths attributable to a given pathogen, the percentage of a given pathogen resistant to an antibiotic of interest, and the excess risk of death or duration of an infection associated with this resistance. Using these components, we estimated disease burden based on two counterfactuals: deaths attributable to AMR (based on an alternative scenario in which all drugresistant infections were replaced by drug-susceptible infections), and deaths associated with AMR (based on an alternative scenario in which all drug-resistant infections were replaced by no infection). We generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates as the 25th and 975th ordered values across 1000 posterior draws, and models were cross-validated for out-of-sample predictive validity. We present final estimates aggregated to the global and regional level. FindingsOn the basis of our predictive statistical models, there were an estimated 4•95 million (3•62-6•57) deaths associated with bacterial AMR in 2019, including 1•27 million (95% UI 0•911-1•71) deaths attributable to bacterial AMR. At the regional level, we estimated the all-age death rate attributable to resistance to be highest in western sub-Saharan Africa, at 27•3 deaths per 100 000 (20•9-35•3), and lowest in Australasia, at 6•5 deaths (4•3-9•4) per 100 000. Lower respiratory infections accounted for more than 1•5 million deaths associated with resistance in 2019, making it the most burdensome infectious syndrome. The six leading pathogens for deaths associated with resistance (Escherichia coli, followed by Staphylococcus aureus, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Acinetobacter baumannii, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa) were responsible for 929 000 (660 000-1 270 000) deaths attributable to AMR and 3•57 million (2•62-4•78) deaths associated with AMR in 2019. One pathogen-drug combination, meticillinresistant S aureus, caused more than 100 000 deaths attributa...

Marlieke de Kraker and colleagues reflect on the need for better global estimates for the burden of antimicrobial resistance.

We performed a multicentre retrospective cohort study including 606,649 acute inpatient episodes at 10 European hospitals in 2010 and 2011 to estimate the impact of antimicrobial resistance on hospital mortality, excess length of stay (LOS) and cost. Bloodstream infections (BSI) caused by third-generation cephalosporin-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (3GCRE), meticillin-susceptible (MSSA) and -resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) increased the daily risk of hospital death (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 1.80; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.34–2.42, HR = 1.81; 95% CI: 1.49–2.20 and HR = 2.42; 95% CI: 1.66–3.51, respectively) and prolonged LOS (9.3 days; 95% CI: 9.2–9.4, 11.5 days; 95% CI: 11.5–11.6 and 13.3 days; 95% CI: 13.2–13.4, respectively). BSI with third-generation cephalosporin-susceptible Enterobacteriaceae (3GCSE) significantly increased LOS (5.9 days; 95% CI: 5.8–5.9) but not hazard of death (1.16; 95% CI: 0.98–1.36). 3GCRE significantly increased the hazard of death (1.63; 95% CI: 1.13–2.35), excess LOS (4.9 days; 95% CI: 1.1–8.7) and cost compared with susceptible strains, whereas meticillin resistance did not. The annual cost of 3GCRE BSI was higher than of MRSA BSI. While BSI with S. aureus had greater impact on mortality, excess LOS and cost than Enterobacteriaceae per infection, the impact of antimicrobial resistance was greater for Enterobacteriaceae.

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