Methane emissions from the U.S. oil and natural gas supply chain were estimated by using ground-based, facility-scale measurements and validated with aircraft observations in areas accounting for ~30% of U.S. gas production. When scaled up nationally, our facility-based estimate of 2015 supply chain emissions is 13 ± 2 teragrams per year, equivalent to 2.3% of gross U.S. gas production. This value is ~60% higher than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency inventory estimate, likely because existing inventory methods miss emissions released during abnormal operating conditions. Methane emissions of this magnitude, per unit of natural gas consumed, produce radiative forcing over a 20-year time horizon comparable to the CO from natural gas combustion. Substantial emission reductions are feasible through rapid detection of the root causes of high emissions and deployment of less failure-prone systems.

Published estimates of methane emissions from atmospheric data (top-down approaches) exceed those from source-based inventories (bottom-up approaches), leading to conflicting claims about the climate implications of fuel switching from coal or petroleum to natural gas. Based on data from a coordinated campaign in the Barnett Shale oil and gas-producing region of Texas, we find that top-down and bottom-up estimates of both total and fossil methane emissions agree within statistical confidence intervals (relative differences are 10% for fossil methane and 0.1% for total methane). We reduced uncertainty in top-down estimates by using repeated mass balance measurements, as well as ethane as a fingerprint for source attribution. Similarly, our bottom-up estimate incorporates a more complete count of facilities than past inventories, which omitted a significant number of major sources, and more effectively accounts for the influence of large emission sources using a statistical estimator that integrates observations from multiple ground-based measurement datasets. Two percent of oil and gas facilities in the Barnett accounts for half of methane emissions at any given time, and high-emitting facilities appear to be spatiotemporally variable. Measured oil and gas methane emissions are 90% larger than estimates based on the US Environmental Protection Agency's Greenhouse Gas Inventory and correspond to 1.5% of natural gas production. This rate of methane loss increases the 20-y climate impacts of natural gas consumed in the region by roughly 50%. methane emissions | oil and gas emissions | greenhouse gas footprint | natural gas supply chain | Barnett Shale M ethane (CH 4 ), the principal component of natural gas, is a powerful greenhouse gas. Although natural gas emits less carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) per unit of energy than coal or oil when burned, CH 4 losses during the production, processing, transportation, and use of natural gas reduce its climate advantage compared with other fossil fuels. For example, if CH 4 losses are large enough (e.g., ∼3% of production), new natural gas power plants can cause greater climate damage than new coal plants for decades or longer (∼1% when comparing natural gas to diesel freight trucks) (1).The lack of current data on CH 4 emissions, magnified by intense public concern over the broader environmental implications of shale gas development, has stimulated significant research to improve estimates of CH 4 emissions (2-18). A recurring theme in recent literature is that "top-down" (TD) approaches produce estimates that are significantly higher than those from "bottomup" (BU) approaches. Concerns about available inventories and divergent TD and BU estimates create confusion regarding policy formulation and leave room for conflicting claims about the greenhouse gas implications of increased use of natural gas.TD approaches for estimating total CH 4 emissions at the regional or larger scale include airborne mass balance (2-4, 19), atmospheric transport models (5,6,(20)(21)(22)(23), and enhancem...

Facility-level methane emissions were measured at 114 gathering facilities and 16 processing plants in the United States natural gas system. At gathering facilities, the measured methane emission rates ranged from 0.7 to 700 kg per hour (kg/h) (0.6 to 600 standard cubic feet per minute (scfm)). Normalized emissions (as a % of total methane throughput) were less than 1% for 85 gathering facilities and 19 had normalized emissions less than 0.1%. The range of methane emissions rates for processing plants was 3 to 600 kg/h (3 to 524 scfm), corresponding to normalized methane emissions rates <1% in all cases. The distributions of methane emissions, particularly for gathering facilities, are skewed. For example, 30% of gathering facilities contribute 80% of the total emissions. Normalized emissions rates are negatively correlated with facility throughput. The variation in methane emissions also appears driven by differences between inlet and outlet pressure, as well as venting and leaking equipment. Substantial venting from liquids storage tanks was observed at 20% of gathering facilities. Emissions rates at these facilities were, on average, around four times the rates observed at similar facilities without substantial venting.

Methane emissions from the oil and gas industry (O&G) and other sources in the Barnett Shale region were estimated by constructing a spatially resolved emission inventory. Eighteen source categories were estimated using multiple data sets, including new empirical measurements at regional O&G sites and a national study of gathering and processing facilities. Spatially referenced activity data were compiled from federal and state databases and combined with O&G facility emission factors calculated using Monte Carlo simulations that account for high emission sites representing the very upper portion, or fat-tail, in the observed emissions distributions. Total methane emissions in the 25-county Barnett Shale region in October 2013 were estimated to be 72,300 (63,400-82,400) kg CH4 h(-1). O&G emissions were estimated to be 46,200 (40,000-54,100) kg CH4 h(-1) with 19% of emissions from fat-tail sites representing less than 2% of sites. Our estimate of O&G emissions in the Barnett Shale region was higher than alternative inventories based on the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Greenhouse Gas Inventory, EPA Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program, and Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research by factors of 1.5, 2.7, and 4.3, respectively. Gathering compressor stations, which accounted for 40% of O&G emissions in our inventory, had the largest difference from emission estimates based on EPA data sources. Our inventory's higher O&G emission estimate was due primarily to its more comprehensive activity factors and inclusion of emissions from fat-tail sites.

Effectively mitigating methane emissions from the natural gas supply chain requires addressing the disproportionate influence of high-emitting sources. Here we use a Monte Carlo simulation to aggregate methane emissions from all components on natural gas production sites in the Barnett Shale production region (Texas). Our total emission estimates are two-thirds of those derived from independent site-based measurements. Although some high-emitting operations occur by design (condensate flashing and liquid unloadings), they occur more than an order of magnitude less frequently than required to explain the reported frequency at which high site-based emissions are observed. We conclude that the occurrence of abnormal process conditions (for example, malfunctions upstream of the point of emissions; equipment issues) cause additional emissions that explain the gap between component-based and site-based emissions. Such abnormal conditions can cause a substantial proportion of a site's gas production to be emitted to the atmosphere and are the defining attribute of super-emitting sites.