The fluctuations of volatile foods commodities (rice, onion, and chicken meat) prices has contributed to the inflation in Pangkalpinang, therefore it can affect the prosperity of society in Pangkalpinang. This research aims to analyze the impact of three main volatile foods commodities, namely rice, onion, and chicken meat to the inflation in Pangkalpinang. The data used are monthly time series data from January 2012 to December 2016. The data was analyzed by using VAR (Vector Autoregression) model or VECM (Vector Error Correction Model). The result shows that in short term, 2 commodites have positive impacts to the inflation in Pangkalpinang, those are rice and onion. Also in long term, 2 commodities have positive impacts to the inflation in Pangkalpinang, those are rice and chicken meat. The IRF (Impulse Response Functions) analysis shows that the response of Consumer Price Index (CPI) of Pangkalpinang towards the shaking of rice and onion prices reaches balance point in long term, while chicken meat price does not reach balance point in long term and short term. The FEVD (Forecast Error Variance Decomposition) analysis shows that the price of chicken meat most contributes to the inflation in Pangkalpinang. ABSTRAKFluktuasi harga ketiga komoditas volatile foods (beras, bawang merah, dan daging ayam ras) memberikan kontribusi yang besar terhadap inflasi di Kota Pangkalpinang, sehingga dapat mempengaruhi kesejahteraan masyarakat di Kota Pangkalpinang. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak fluktuasi harga tiga komoditas volatile foods utama yaitu beras, bawang merah, dan daging ayam ras terhadap inflasi di Kota Pangkalpinang. Data yang digunakan adalah data time series bulanan dari Januari 2012 hingga Desember 2016 dan dianalasis menggunakan model VAR (Vector Autoregression) atau VECM (Vector Error Correction Model). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka pendek terdapat dua komoditas yang berpengaruh positif terhadap inflasi di Kota Pangkalpinang yaitu beras dan bawang merah. Dalam jangka panjang juga terdapat dua komoditas yang berpengaruh positif terhadap inflasi di Kota Pangkalpinang yaitu beras dan daging ayam ras. Analisis IRF (Impulse Response Function) menunjukkan respon Indeks Harga Konsumen (IHK) Pangkalpinang terhadap guncangan harga beras dan bawang merah mencapai titik keseimbangan pada jangka panjang, sementara harga daging ayam ras tidak mencapai titik keseimbangan pada jangka panjang dan jangka pendek. Analisis FEVD (Forecast Error Variance Decompositon) menunjukkan bahawa harga daging ayam ras memberikan kontribusi paling besar terhadap inflasi di Kota Pangkalpinang.
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