No abstract

This paper presents debt fan charts constructed using the quantile regression approach for nine developing member countries of ADB. Macroeconomic and fiscal determinants of debt are forecasted using quantile regression and the resulting projections are shown in the fan charts for India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, the People’s Republic of China, the Philippines, the Republic of Korea, Sri Lanka, and Thailand. Furthermore, the fan charts present the uncertainty in the path of debt, especially in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.