6 chain to the destination becomes more complicated. This leads to an increase in the operating costs of a railroad system compared to railroads that follow the system of train traffic on schedule. To improve the competitiveness of a railroad system within which the traffic of trains fails to follow a timetable, it is important to build the functional for a periodic notification about the state of train dispatch. One of the important notification functions is the calculation of the estimated time of arrival (ETA) of a cargo dispatch [2]. Within the framework of the ETA calculation, which is determined for a cargo dispatch at each railroad station 1. Introduction Given the conditions of automation and digitalization of all industries, increasing the level of predictability of the technological process of a rail system transportation is a necessary requirement to reduce the cost of supply chains [1]. The operating model of railroad systems without following the schedule of freight trains possesses a considerable degree of uncertainty in the cargo transportation process. In such systems, the possibility of predicting the duration of operations involving cargo dispatch along a transportation
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