Chickenpox is classified as a transmission disease, especially young ages from three months to 15 years old. This study clarifies the effect of the area, population, and the number of the health centers on the number of cases of chickenpox disease in the Rusafa district, Baghdad, Iraq. We use the Partial Linear Model (PLM) that divides the independent variables into two parts (parametric and non-parametric). Moreover, choosing the best model that represents data of the chickenpox disease, using criteria (R2, Bic, Aic) from six models. The results of the study show a positive relation between the number of cases and number of health centers.

Bayesian estimators may be affected by the polluted samples, because these samples can lead to the influence of the estimation methods in general and the Bayesian methods in particular, and thus the deviation of the values of the distribution parameter from their real values, and this leads to the divergence of the capabilities of the Bayes survival estimators from the real values. The results showed that the estimators of the parameters were affected by many factors (sample size, distribution parameter, number of outliers and the estimation method). Simulation experiment results also showed a difference in Mean Square Error (MSE) of the Bayes survival estimators for each different experiment. Bayesian methods can be compared with other estimation methods (Maximum likelihood Estimation (MLE), Moment estimation (MOM) and shrinkage method (SH)). Also, Bayesian methods can be used to estimate the survival function of other distributions (exponential, Gamma and mixed) to observe the estimation results with the presence of extreme values.

Medical and technological development has achieved continuous successes during the last period. However, the statistics received from the World Health Organization (WHO) show the suffering that millions of people are subjected to daily as a result of their exposure to transitional diseases. The most prevalent transitional disease in the Iraqi provinces and for all age groups for both genders is water pox disease, followed by cutaneous leishmaniosis and then mumps. The most affected governorate with transitional diseases is Baghdad Governorate (Rusafa Sector), followed by Dhi Qar Governorate and Baghdad (Al Karkh Sector). The most agegroups affected with transition diseases are the categories (5-9) years for males, followed by (5-9) years for females. The highest total contribution to the first axis was for cutaneous leishmaniasis, followed by mumps, then Basil dysentery, as for the absolute contribution in the first axis, it was Dhi Qar Governorate, followed by Baghdad. There are more than 14,000,000 people who die each year because of these diseases, and most infections are concentrated in developing countries, including Iraq. Hence, this research is vital to examine the extent of transitional diseases in Iraq for different age groups, both male and female gender. The use of the multivariate method, which is the correspondence analyses, it was found through the research that Baghdad (Rusafa Sector) has a high incidence of transitional diseases and the largest age group at risk of transitional diseases is (5-9) years form male gender.