PurposeFor close to two decades, the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) has been preparing to launch a second monetary union within the ECOWAS region. This study aims to determine the impact such a unionised monetary regime will have on financial stability as represented by the nonperforming loan ratios of Ghana in a counterfactual framework.Design/methodology/approachThis study models nonperforming loan ratios as dependent on the monetary policy rate and the business cycle. The study then used historical data to estimate the parameters of the nonperforming loan ratio response function using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The estimated parameters are further used to estimate the impact of several counterfactual unionised monetary policy rates on the nonperforming loan ratios and its volatility of Ghana. As robustness check, the Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator (LASSO) regression is also used to estimate the nonperforming loan ratios response function and to predict nonperforming loans under the counterfactual unionised monetary policy rates.FindingsThe results of the counterfactual study reveals that the apparent cost of monetary unification is much less than supposed with a monetary union likely to dampen volatility in non-performing loans in Ghana. As such, the WAMZ members should increase the pace towards monetary unification.Originality/valueThe paper contributes to the existing literature by explicitly modelling nonperforming loan ratios as dependent on monetary policy and the business cycle. The study also settles the debate on the financial stability cost of a monetary union due to the nonalignment of business cycles and economic structures.
Monetary policy, even if minimal and uncertain regarding the direction of impact, has been found to have distributional effects especially in the developed world. The purpose of this study is to determine the impact monetary policy has on income inequality in Ghana which can be a case study for a developing African Economy with independent monetary policy. Data for the period 2002Q1 to 2013Q4 is used. The study used the Impulse Response Functions (IRFs) by Local Projections methodology in estimating the degree and direction of impact of monetary policy on income distribution in Ghana. From the analysis, it is concluded that contractionary monetary policy leads to an increase in disposable income inequality in Ghana marginally.
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