This paper presents a mathematical model of an inventory system from the warehouse of goods Distribution Company using system identification approach. Considering items ordered from suppliers and items shipped to customers, as the inputs of the system and the stock level as the output system. In this paper, ARX model and ARMAX model are outlined and compared. The performances of each type of model are highlighted. A case study with real data set is discussed.

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This paper refers to possibility of utilization a new method for modeling an industrial production system using the identification approach.The production system studied is considered as a black box, which does not require any knowledge of the internal parameters. Two structures of linear parametric models are outlined and compared i.e. Autoregressive with Exogenous (ARX) model and Autoregressive Moving Average with Exogenous (ARMAX) model. The best linear model is ARMAX, due to its higher percentage of best fit.