Small pelagics, or forage fish, link lower and higher trophic levels in marine food webs. Recently, attention has been given to the management of forage fish, including anadromous river herring (Alewife Alosa pseudoharengus, blueback herring A. aestivalis) and American shad (A. sapidissima) due to their current depleted status and historically important ecological and economic roles. Little is known about the impact of changes in their biomass on marine food webs and what management practices will promote their recovery. Estimated historical riverine productivity was utilized to evaluate potential ecosystem impacts of the increasing river to ocean connectivity to resemble 19th-century conditions. The Ecopath with Ecosim modeling framework was used to simulate management strategies, focused on anadromous forage fish, by creating scenarios of fisheries reduction (mixed fishery effort reduction) and river to ocean habitat connectivity (75% of historical connectivity achieved). Sixty-year simulations covered the entire time series including a 36-year forecast period to evaluate the ecosystem impacts of management strategies. Results suggest nonlinear relationships and large changes in biomass flows from forage fish to upper trophic levels in the Gulf of Maine ecosystem. Increases in biomass were observed for pelagic sharks, demersal piscivores, and species of conservation concern such as pinnipeds and seabirds, although overall results were strongly influenced by indirect trophic effects. Promoting anadromous forage fish recovery through increased connectivity resulted in the redundancy of marine ecosystem niches that would increase resilience to climate, fisheries, and other perturbations. This study highlights the value of employing ecosystem models for testing management scenarios to contrast different approaches to recover anadromous forage fish towards its former ecological prominence.

No abstract