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Graphic abstract Food from the sea can make a larger contribution to healthy and sustainable diets, and to addressing hunger and malnutrition, through improvements in production, distribution and equitable access to wild harvest and mariculture resources and products. The supply and consumption of seafood is influenced by a range of ‘drivers’ including ecosystem change and ocean regulation, the influence of corporations and evolving consumer demand, as well as the growing focus on the importance of seafood for meeting nutritional needs. These drivers need to be examined in a holistic way to develop an informed understanding of the needs, potential impacts and solutions that align seafood production and consumption with relevant 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This paper uses an evidence-based narrative approach to examine how the anticipated global trends for seafood might be experienced by people in different social, geographical and economic situations over the next ten years. Key drivers influencing seafood within the global food system are identified and used to construct a future scenario based on our current trajectory (Business-as-usual 2030). Descriptive pathways and actions are then presented for a more sustainable future scenario that strives towards achieving the SDGs as far as technically possible (More sustainable 2030). Prioritising actions that not only sustainably produce more seafood, but consider aspects of access and utilisation, particularly for people affected by food insecurity and malnutrition, is an essential part of designing sustainable and secure future seafood systems. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11160-021-09663-x.