Abstract. European coasts suffer notably from hazards caused by low-probability and high-impact hydrometeorological events. The aim of the study is to assess in probabilistic terms the magnitude of stormǦinduced flooding hazard along Varna regional coast (Bulgaria, western Black Sea) and to identify susceptible coastal sectors (hotspots). The study is performed employing the Coastal Risk Assessment Framework (CRAF) developed within EU FP7 RISC-KIT project. It constitutes a screening process that allows estimation of UHOHYDQW KD]DUG LQWHQVLWLHV H[WHQWV DQG SRWHQWLDO UHFHSWRUV ¶ H[SRVXUH YXOQHUDELOLW\ ZLWKLQ SUHGHILQHG VHFWRUVTotal water level was the chief property considered for calculation of coastal flooding hazard. It was estimated using Holman model (for sandy beaches) and EurOtop formulation (for artificial or rocky slopes). Resulting values were subjected to Extreme Value Analysis to establish that the best fitting distribution corresponds to Generalized Extreme Value distribution. Furthermore, hazard extents were modelled by means of bathtubbing or overwash estimation in order to form the flooding hazard indicator. Land use, social vulnerability, transport systems, utilities and business settings were considered as exposure indicators. Finally, potential risk was assessed by coastal indices following an index-based methodology, which combines hazard and exposure LQGLFDWRUV LQWR D VLQJOH LQGH[ WKHUHE\ SURYLGLQJ EDVH IRU FRPSDULVRQ RI FRDVWDO VHFWRUV ¶ YXOQHUDELOLW\ 7KH study found that the concentration of hotspots is highest in Varna Bay.

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