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Single-dose vaccine formats can prevent clinic-level vaccine wastage but may incur higher production, medical waste disposal, and storage costs than multi-dose formats. To help guide vaccine developers, manufacturers, distributors, and purchasers, we developed a computational model to predict the potential economic impact of various single-dose versus multi-dose measles (MEA), hemophilus influenzae type B (Hib), Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG), yellow fever (YF), and pentavalent (DTP-HepB-Hib) vaccine formats. Lower patient demand favors fewer dose formats. The mean daily patient arrival thresholds for each vaccine format are as follows: for the MEA vaccine, 2 patients/day (below which the single-dose vial and above which the 10-dose vial are least costly); BCG vaccine, 6 patients/day (below, 10-dose vial; above, 20-dose vial); Hib vaccine, 5 patients/day (below, single-dose vial; above, 10-dose vial); YF vaccine, 33 patients/day (below, 5-dose vials; above 50-dose vial); and DTP-HepB-Hib vaccine, 5 patients/day (below, single-dose vial; above, 10-dose vial).

The best redesign option proved to be the synergistic approach of converting to the Health Zone design and using shipping loops (serving ten Health Posts/loop). While a transition to either redesign or only adding shipping loops was beneficial, implementing a redesign option and shipping loops can yield both lower capital expenditures and operating costs.

BackgroundMany countries, such as Niger, are considering changing their vaccine vial size presentation and may want to evaluate the subsequent impact on their supply chains, the series of steps required to get vaccines from their manufacturers to patients. The measles vaccine is particularly important in Niger, a country prone to measles outbreaks.MethodsWe developed a detailed discrete event simulation model of the vaccine supply chain representing every vaccine, storage location, refrigerator, freezer, and transport device (e.g., cold trucks, 4 × 4 trucks, and vaccine carriers) in the Niger Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI). Experiments simulated the impact of replacing the 10-dose measles vial size with 5-dose, 2-dose and 1-dose vial sizes.ResultsSwitching from the 10-dose to the 5-dose, 2-dose and 1-dose vial sizes decreased the average availability of EPI vaccines for arriving patients from 83% to 82%, 81% and 78%, respectively for a 100% target population size. The switches also changed transport vehicle's utilization from a mean of 58% (range: 4-164%) to means of 59% (range: 4-164%), 62% (range: 4-175%), and 67% (range: 5-192%), respectively, between the regional and district stores, and from a mean of 160% (range: 83-300%) to means of 161% (range: 82-322%), 175% (range: 78-344%), and 198% (range: 88-402%), respectively, between the district to integrated health centres (IHC). The switch also changed district level storage utilization from a mean of 65% to means of 64%, 66% and 68% (range for all scenarios: 3-100%). Finally, accounting for vaccine administration, wastage, and disposal, replacing the 10-dose vial with the 5 or 1-dose vials would increase the cost per immunized patient from $0.47US to $0.71US and $1.26US, respectively.ConclusionsThe switch from the 10-dose measles vaccines to smaller vial sizes could overwhelm the capacities of many storage facilities and transport vehicles as well as increase the cost per vaccinated child.