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Klimaat (CH4 en N2O) 19 Mton CO2-eq 9 Mton CO2-eq Landbouw en landgebruik netto nul emissies in NL Klimaat (landgebruik) 6 Mton CO2-eq 2 Mton CO2-eq Landbouw en landgebruik netto nul emissies in NL Ammoniak 110 kton NH3 85 kton NH3 50 kton NH3 Nutriënten (N en P) uit-en afspoeling 45 kton N

This study explores the possible development pathways for the Dutch dairy sector as we approach 2030. An economic model was developed with which the effect of economic, policy, and societal changes on the structure of the Dutch dairy farm sector can be explored. The baseline scenario is based on existing and implemented policy and continuation of past behaviour. In 2030, this will result in a 33% decrease in the number of farms and a 4% increase in the total milk production (compared to 2018), and a decrease in the number of cows to nearly 1.5 million. In addition to the baseline scenario, three exploratory scenarios based on potential future societal changes were investigated.Recommendations are made about how the insights may be used to make dairy farming more economically sound and more sustainable. This requires coordinated actions from a number of actors.Trefwoorden: Melkveehouderij, scenario's, duurzaamheid, economie Dit rapport is gratis te downloaden op https://doi.org/10.18174/532156 of op www.wur.nl/economicresearch (onder Wageningen Economic Research publicaties).