Interest in mapping the global distribution of malaria is motivated by a need to define populations at risk for appropriate resource allocation 1,2 and to provide a robust framework for evaluating its global economic impact 3,4 . Comparison of older [5][6][7] and more recent 1,4 malaria maps shows how the disease has been geographically restricted, but it remains entrenched in poor areas of the world with climates suitable for transmission. Here we provide an empirical approach to estimating the number of clinical events caused by Plasmodium falciparum worldwide, by using a combination of epidemiological, geographical and demographic data. We estimate that there were 515 (range 300-660) million episodes of clinical P. falciparum malaria in 2002. These global estimates are up to 50% higher than those reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) and 200% higher for areas outside Africa, reflecting the WHO's reliance upon passive national reporting for these countries. Without an informed understanding of the cartography of malaria risk, the global extent of clinical disease caused by P. falciparum will continue to be underestimated.The Global Burden of Diseases programme of the WHO has attempted to enumerate the health consequences of malaria infection 8,9 . Because the African region has a notoriously weak system of reporting infectious diseases, epidemiological evidence from carefully conducted prospective, 'active' case-detection studies of malaria morbidity, disability and mortality in populations living under different transmission intensity risks have been compiled to estimate the disease burden 10 . A different approach was adopted for WHO regions outside Africa, where the burden was computed from 'passive' national disease and mortality notifications to WHO regional offices without precisely defining the populations exposed to varied malaria infection risks 9,11,12 . This use of national disease registration systems to provide accurate reflections of disease rests on three assumptions: that there is complete temporal coverage (every month is reported by a facility), that there is complete spatial coverage (every health facility reports nationwide), and that all disease events present to, and are reported by, health facilities. In reality, passive detection of disease events in most resource-poor countries is incomplete, even outside Africa. Competing interests statementThe authors declare competing financial interests: details accompany the paper on www.nature.com. Europe PMC Funders GroupAuthor Manuscript Nature. Author manuscript; available in PMC 2011 July 01. Here we provide a standard global approach to deriving clinical malaria burden by using evidence of the epidemiological risks of disease outcome from active case-detection studies in combination with estimates of populations at risk of various P. falciparum transmission conditions. A comprehensive outline of these procedures is given in Methods. A conservative approach is defined to further account for the confounding of malaria diagno...

BackgroundTransmission intensity affects almost all aspects of malaria epidemiology and the impact of malaria on human populations. Maps of transmission intensity are necessary to identify populations at different levels of risk and to evaluate objectively options for disease control. To remain relevant operationally, such maps must be updated frequently. Following the first global effort to map Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity in 2007, this paper describes the generation of a new world map for the year 2010. This analysis is extended to provide the first global estimates of two other metrics of transmission intensity for P. falciparum that underpin contemporary questions in malaria control: the entomological inoculation rate (PfEIR) and the basic reproductive number (PfR).MethodsAnnual parasite incidence data for 13,449 administrative units in 43 endemic countries were sourced to define the spatial limits of P. falciparum transmission in 2010 and 22,212 P. falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) surveys were used in a model-based geostatistical (MBG) prediction to create a continuous contemporary surface of malaria endemicity within these limits. A suite of transmission models were developed that link PfPR to PfEIR and PfR and these were fitted to field data. These models were combined with the PfPR map to create new global predictions of PfEIR and PfR. All output maps included measured uncertainty.ResultsAn estimated 1.13 and 1.44 billion people worldwide were at risk of unstable and stable P. falciparum malaria, respectively. The majority of the endemic world was predicted with a median PfEIR of less than one and a median PfRc of less than two. Values of either metric exceeding 10 were almost exclusive to Africa. The uncertainty described in both PfEIR and PfR was substantial in regions of intense transmission.ConclusionsThe year 2010 has a particular significance as an evaluation milestone for malaria global health policy. The maps presented here contribute to a rational basis for control and elimination decisions and can serve as a baseline assessment as the global health community looks ahead to the next series of milestones targeted at 2015.

The aim of this review was to use geographic information systems in combination with historical maps to quantify the anthropogenic impact on the distribution of malaria in the 20th century. The nature of the cartographic record enabled global and regional patterns in the spatial limits of malaria to be investigated at six intervals between 1900 and 2002. Contemporaneous population surfaces also allowed changes in the numbers of people living in areas of malaria risk to be quantified. These data showed that during the past century, despite human activities reducing by half the land area supporting malaria, demographic changes resulted in a 2 billion increase in the total population exposed to malaria risk. Furthermore, stratifying the present day malaria extent by endemicity class and examining regional differences highlighted that nearly 1 billion people are exposed to hypoendemic and mesoendemic malaria in southeast Asia. We further concluded that some distortion in estimates of the regional distribution of malaria burden could have resulted from different methods used to calculate burden in Africa. Crude estimates of the national prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum infection based on endemicity maps corroborate these assertions. Finally, population projections for 2010 were used to investigate the potential effect of future demographic changes. These indicated that although population growth will not substantially change the regional distribution of people at malaria risk, around 400 million births will occur within the boundary of current distribution of malaria by 2010: the date by which the Roll Back Malaria initiative is challenged to halve the world's malaria burden.