Emergent cyber-attacks and exploits targeting Operational Technologies (OT) call for a proactive risk management approach. The convergence between OT and the Internet-of-Things in industries introduces new opportunities for cyber-attacks that have the potential to disrupt time-critical and hazardous processes. This paper proposes a methodology to adapt traditional risk management standards to work in a continuous fashion. Monitoring of risk factors is based on incident and event management tools, and misbehaviour detection to address cyberphysical systems' security gaps. Another source of information that can enhance this approach is threat intelligence. Risks are calculated using Bayesian Networks.
This paper introduces an "Indicator of Risk (IoR) Library" that leverages the MITRE ATT&CK for Industrial Control Systems (ICS) knowledge base to support continuous risk monitoring. This allows also making use of variables that are already being monitored to analyse risks in a continuous basis. IoRs broaden the concept of Indicators of Compromise by combining detection strategies with probabilistic inference as a tool for quantifying cyber-security risks. The latest version of the Library has 95 IoRs and has been reviewed by professionals from three major companies and cross-referenced against detection use-cases implemented by other researchers to validate its potential to identify variables for monitoring cyber-risks in ICS.
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