D eveloping countries are subject to strong macroeconomic shocks. Excluding countries affected by civil wars, the percentage volatility of per capita consumption has typically been two to six times greater in these countries than in industrialized countries over the past three decades. Figure 1 provides a vivid illustration of this fact, by plotting the cyclical component of consumption in several African countries against its counterpart in the United States between 1970 and *Stéphane

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