Agricultural risk, especially the risk assessment, partition and economic loss estimation of specific and main crops, maize, wheat and rice, is widely touted in China as a means of improving the effective productivity. The main objective of this article is to perform a detailed analysis of the stability and comparative advantage of rice production in 30 provinces on the basis of relative rice production data from 2000 to 2012 in China. The non-parametric information diffusion model based on entropy theory was used to assess rice production risk. Accordingly, we divided the risk level with hierarchical cluster analysis. Then, we calculated the economic loss of rice production by the scenario analysis. The results show that, firstly, the national disaster risk of rice production is at a lower level. Secondly, there are significant differences in the stability, comparative advantage and risk probability of rice production among the 30 provinces. Thirdly, Shanxi province belongs to the high risk zone, 12 provinces belong to the middle risk zone and 17 provinces to the low risk zone. Finally, there is a proportional rate between the economic loss (yield loss) and disaster area (yield loss rate) of rice production. Therefore, we could obtain some significant policy suggestions.

At present, the fundamental development way of agricultural production lies in science and technology to achieve the agricultural sustainable and stable development and ensure the eff ective supply of agricultural products for a long time. Many Chinese scholars had done many researches about the agricultural science and technology innovation. Numerous scholars got much valuable research conclusions for improving the construction of agricultural science and technology innovation system. However, there were still some problems existing in the current agricultural science research system, such as that the agricultural science and technology studies were divorced from the agricultural production, the mechanism of the market was still imperfect, there was an unreasonable layout in the agricultural science and technology. Th erefore, we wanted to know the dynamic and the evolution path of the international agricultural science and technology innovation. What is more, we wanted to know whether there was a signifi cant diff erence between the domestic and overseas agricultural science and technology innovation and if the international experience was good for the development of the Chinese agricultural science and technology innovation. So, there was analysed the research theme, the hot-spots and frontiers of international agricultural science and technology innovation based on the Citespace III to get the situation and character of the relevant international research.

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