SummaryBackgroundUnderweight, overweight, and obesity in childhood and adolescence are associated with adverse health consequences throughout the life-course. Our aim was to estimate worldwide trends in mean body-mass index (BMI) and a comprehensive set of BMI categories that cover underweight to obesity in children and adolescents, and to compare trends with those of adults.MethodsWe pooled 2416 population-based studies with measurements of height and weight on 128·9 million participants aged 5 years and older, including 31·5 million aged 5–19 years. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2016 in 200 countries for mean BMI and for prevalence of BMI in the following categories for children and adolescents aged 5–19 years: more than 2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference for children and adolescents (referred to as moderate and severe underweight hereafter), 2 SD to more than 1 SD below the median (mild underweight), 1 SD below the median to 1 SD above the median (healthy weight), more than 1 SD to 2 SD above the median (overweight but not obese), and more than 2 SD above the median (obesity).FindingsRegional change in age-standardised mean BMI in girls from 1975 to 2016 ranged from virtually no change (−0·01 kg/m2 per decade; 95% credible interval −0·42 to 0·39, posterior probability [PP] of the observed decrease being a true decrease=0·5098) in eastern Europe to an increase of 1·00 kg/m2 per decade (0·69–1·35, PP>0·9999) in central Latin America and an increase of 0·95 kg/m2 per decade (0·64–1·25, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. The range for boys was from a non-significant increase of 0·09 kg/m2 per decade (−0·33 to 0·49, PP=0·6926) in eastern Europe to an increase of 0·77 kg/m2 per decade (0·50–1·06, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Trends in mean BMI have recently flattened in northwestern Europe and the high-income English-speaking and Asia-Pacific regions for both sexes, southwestern Europe for boys, and central and Andean Latin America for girls. By contrast, the rise in BMI has accelerated in east and south Asia for both sexes, and southeast Asia for boys. Global age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 0·7% (0·4–1·2) in 1975 to 5·6% (4·8–6·5) in 2016 in girls, and from 0·9% (0·5–1·3) in 1975 to 7·8% (6·7–9·1) in 2016 in boys; the prevalence of moderate and severe underweight decreased from 9·2% (6·0–12·9) in 1975 to 8·4% (6·8–10·1) in 2016 in girls and from 14·8% (10·4–19·5) in 1975 to 12·4% (10·3–14·5) in 2016 in boys. Prevalence of moderate and severe underweight was highest in India, at 22·7% (16·7–29·6) among girls and 30·7% (23·5–38·0) among boys. Prevalence of obesity was more than 30% in girls in Nauru, the Cook Islands, and Palau; and boys in the Cook Islands, Nauru, Palau, Niue, and American Samoa in 2016. Prevalence of obesity was about 20% or more in several countries in Polynesia and Micronesia, the Middle East and north Africa, the Caribbean, and the USA. In 2016, 75 (44–117) million girls and 117 (70–178) million boys wor...

Genome-wide association (GWA) studies have identified multiple new genomic loci at which common variants modestly but reproducibly influence risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D)1-11. Established associations to common and rare variants explain only a small proportion of the heritability of T2D. As previously published analyses had limited power to discover loci at which common alleles have modest effects, we performed meta-analysis of three T2D GWA scans encompassing 10,128 individuals of European-descent and ~2.2 million SNPs (directly genotyped and imputed). Replication testing was performed in an independent sample with an effective sample size of up to 53,975. At least six new loci with robust evidence for association were detected, including the JAZF1 (p=5.0×10 −14 ), CDC123/CAMK1D (p=1.2×10 −10 ), TSPAN8/ LGR5 (p=1.1×10 −9 ), THADA (p=1.1×10 −9 ), ADAMTS9 (p=1.2×10 −8 ), and NOTCH2 (p=4.1×10 −8 ) gene regions. The large number of loci with relatively small effects indicates the value of large discovery and follow-up samples in identifying additional clues about the inherited basis of T2D.Genome-wide association studies are unbiased by previous hypotheses concerning candidate genes and pathways, but challenged by the modest effect sizes of individual common susceptibility variants and the need for stringent statistical thresholds. For example, the largest allelic odds ratio of any established common variant for T2D is ~1.35 (TCF7L2), with the nine other validated associations to common variants (excluding FTO, which has its primary effect through obesity) having allelic odds ratios between 1.1 and 1. 21-6,11,12. To augment power to detect additional loci of similar and/or smaller effect, we increased sample size by combining three previously published GWA studies (Diabetes Genetics Initiative [DGI], Finland-United States Investigation of NIDDM Genetics [FUSION], and Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium [WTCCC])1-4, and extended SNP coverage by imputing untyped SNPs based on patterns of haplotype variation from the HapMap dataset13 (Table 1).We started with a set of genotyped autosomal SNPs that passed quality control (QC) filters in each study: in WTCCC, 393,143 SNPs from the Affymetrix 500k chip (MAF>0.01; 1,924 cases and 2,938 population-based controls from the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium3,4); in DGI, 378,860 Using these directly measured and imputed genotypes, we tested for association of each SNP with T2D in each study separately, corrected each study for residual population stratification, cryptic relatedness or technical artifacts using genomic control, and then combined these results in a genome-wide meta-analysis across a total of 10,128 samples (4,549 cases, 5,579 controls) (Methods; Supplementary Methods). We calculated that this sample size provides reasonable power to detect additional variants with properties similar to those previously identified by less formal data combination efforts1,2,4 (Supplementary Table 2). Unless otherwise indicated, results presented are derived from...

SummaryBackgroundRaised blood pressure is an important risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and chronic kidney disease. We estimated worldwide trends in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of, and number of people with, raised blood pressure, defined as systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or higher or diastolic blood pressure of 90 mm Hg or higher.MethodsFor this analysis, we pooled national, subnational, or community population-based studies that had measured blood pressure in adults aged 18 years and older. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2015 in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of raised blood pressure for 200 countries. We calculated the contributions of changes in prevalence versus population growth and ageing to the increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure.FindingsWe pooled 1479 studies that had measured the blood pressures of 19·1 million adults. Global age-standardised mean systolic blood pressure in 2015 was 127·0 mm Hg (95% credible interval 125·7–128·3) in men and 122·3 mm Hg (121·0–123·6) in women; age-standardised mean diastolic blood pressure was 78·7 mm Hg (77·9–79·5) for men and 76·7 mm Hg (75·9–77·6) for women. Global age-standardised prevalence of raised blood pressure was 24·1% (21·4–27·1) in men and 20·1% (17·8–22·5) in women in 2015. Mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure decreased substantially from 1975 to 2015 in high-income western and Asia Pacific countries, moving these countries from having some of the highest worldwide blood pressure in 1975 to the lowest in 2015. Mean blood pressure also decreased in women in central and eastern Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, and, more recently, central Asia, Middle East, and north Africa, but the estimated trends in these super-regions had larger uncertainty than in high-income super-regions. By contrast, mean blood pressure might have increased in east and southeast Asia, south Asia, Oceania, and sub-Saharan Africa. In 2015, central and eastern Europe, sub-Saharan Africa, and south Asia had the highest blood pressure levels. Prevalence of raised blood pressure decreased in high-income and some middle-income countries; it remained unchanged elsewhere. The number of adults with raised blood pressure increased from 594 million in 1975 to 1·13 billion in 2015, with the increase largely in low-income and middle-income countries. The global increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure is a net effect of increase due to population growth and ageing, and decrease due to declining age-specific prevalence.InterpretationDuring the past four decades, the highest worldwide blood pressure levels have shifted from high-income countries to low-income countries in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa due to opposite trends, while blood pressure has been persistently high in central and eastern Europe.FundingWellcome Trust.

SummaryOverweight and obesity affect ~1.5 billion people worldwide, and are major risk factors for type-2 diabetes (T2D), cardiovascular disease and related metabolic and inflammatory disturbances.1,2 Although the mechanisms linking adiposity to its clinical sequelae are poorly understood, recent studies suggest that adiposity may influence DNA methylation,3–6 a key regulator of gene expression and molecular phenotype.7 Here we use epigenome-wide association to show that body mass index (BMI, a key measure of adiposity) is associated with widespread changes in DNA methylation (187 genetic loci at P<1x10-7, range P=9.2x10-8 to 6.0x10-46; N=10,261 samples). Genetic association analyses demonstrate that the alterations in DNA methylation are predominantly the consequence of adiposity, rather than the cause. We find the methylation loci are enriched for functional genomic features in multiple tissues (P<0.05), and show that sentinel methylation markers identify gene expression signatures at 38 loci (P<9.0x10-6, range P=5.5x10-6 to 6.1x10-35, N=1,785 samples). The methylation loci identified highlight genes involved in lipid and lipoprotein metabolism, substrate transport, and inflammatory pathways. Finally, we show that the disturbances in DNA methylation predict future type-2 diabetes (relative risk per 1SD increase in Methylation Risk Score: 2.3 [2.07-2.56]; P=1.1x10-54). Our results provide new insights into the biologic pathways influenced by adiposity, and may enable development of new strategies for prediction and prevention of type-2 diabetes and other adverse clinical consequences of obesity.

Background Hypertension can be detected at the primary health-care level and low-cost treatments can effectively control hypertension. We aimed to measure the prevalence of hypertension and progress in its detection, treatment, and control from 1990 to 2019 for 200 countries and territories. MethodsWe used data from 1990 to 2019 on people aged 30-79 years from population-representative studies with measurement of blood pressure and data on blood pressure treatment. We defined hypertension as having systolic blood pressure 140 mm Hg or greater, diastolic blood pressure 90 mm Hg or greater, or taking medication for hypertension. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the prevalence of hypertension and the proportion of people with hypertension who had a previous diagnosis (detection), who were taking medication for hypertension (treatment), and whose hypertension was controlled to below 140/90 mm Hg (control). The model allowed for trends over time to be non-linear and to vary by age.Findings The number of people aged 30-79 years with hypertension doubled from 1990 to 2019, from 331 (95% credible interval 306-359) million women and 317 (292-344) million men in 1990 to 626 (584-668) million women and 652 (604-698) million men in 2019, despite stable global age-standardised prevalence. In 2019, age-standardised hypertension prevalence was lowest in Canada and Peru for both men and women; in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and some countries in western Europe including Switzerland, Spain, and the UK for women; and in several low-income and middle-income countries such as Eritrea, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Solomon Islands for men. Hypertension prevalence surpassed 50% for women in two countries and men in nine countries, in central and eastern Europe, central Asia, Oceania, and Latin America. Globally, 59% (55-62) of women and 49% (46-52) of men with hypertension reported a previous diagnosis of hypertension in 2019, and 47% (43-51) of women and 38% (35-41) of men were treated. Control rates among people with hypertension in 2019 were 23% (20-27) for women and 18% (16-21) for men. In 2019, treatment and control rates were highest in South Korea, Canada, and Iceland (treatment >70%; control >50%), followed by the USA, Costa Rica, Germany, Portugal, and Taiwan. Treatment rates were less than 25% for women and less than 20% for men in Nepal, Indonesia, and some countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Control rates were below 10% for women and men in these countries and for men in some countries in north Africa, central and south Asia, and eastern Europe. Treatment and control rates have improved in most countries since 1990, but we found little change in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Improvements were largest in high-income countries, central Europe, and some upper-middle-income and recently high-income countries including