The paper raises and discusses issues related to the derivation, behaviour and characteristics of input‐output multipliers where the exogenous changes are not assumed in elements of final demand but in total outputs of sectors and commodities. These multipliers are more appropriate for use in impact analysis of policies which influence farm outputs, than the traditional final demand multipliers. The paper estimates also such “supply‐driven” multipliers for 16 farm commodities of US agriculture. The empirical analysis shows that despite the variability in the multipliers' values, two rather solid groups of commodities which feel the strongest impacts of different crop and livestock output changes respectively, can be found. Several commodities are common to both groups, verifying also the significance of some indirect linkages between farm and non‐farm commodities. However, the final demand sectors absorb the largest part of the initial exogenous change itself.
The increasing number of economic shocks and disruptions and their highly heterogeneous territorial impacts reopened the debate on the ability of regions to withstand and recover from exogenous shocks. This paper focuses on the recessionary impact of the 2008 global financial economic crisis. It empirically explores the relationship between pre-crisis spatial connectivity and economic resilience across European Union (EU) regions over the 2008–2015 period. The empirical analysis is performed on a sample of 1312 NUTS-3 regions in 25 countries. Standard, spatial and multilevel hierarchical regression models are applied to investigate the effect of spatial connectivity and other pre-crisis determinants on regional economic resilience across three geographical scales: national, NUTS-2 regional and NUTS-3 regional. The results show that accessibility is an important factor for EU NUTS-3 regions to build resilience capabilities to exogenous shocks. Our findings demonstrate that higher accessibility is associated with greater regional economic resilience. The model results indicate a positive effect of migration and a negative effect of the ageing population on regional reaction to the crisis. Our analysis highlights the importance of country effects and spatial spillover effects on the ability of regions to shape resilience capabilities.
A significant part of the literature on input-output (IO) analysis is dedicated to the development and application of methodologies forecasting and updating technology coefficients and multipliers. Prominent among such techniques is the RAS method, while more information demanding econometric methods, as well as other less promising ones, have been proposed. However, there has been little interest expressed in the use of more modern and often more innovative methods, such as neural networks in IO analysis in general. This study constructs, proposes and applies a Backpropagation Neural Network (BPN) with the purpose of forecasting IO technology coefficients and subsequently multipliers. The RAS method is also applied on the same set of UK IO tables, and the discussion of results of both methods is accompanied by a comparative analysis. The results show that the BPN offers a valid alternative way of IO technology forecasting and many forecasts were more accurate using this method. Overall, however, the RAS method outperformed the BPN but the difference is rather small to be systematic and there are further ways to improve the performance of the BPN.
In recent years, cannabis has raised public awareness in many countries worldwide about its medical uses. The European cannabis market reached its peak during 2018 with investments of 500 million €. Greece introduced Law 4523/2018, which regulates the production and processing of medical cannabis. A start-up business plan was drawn up for a medical cannabis operation owned a 1 ha greenhouse to estimate the start-up costs and the costs of cultivating and processing medical cannabis under greenhouse conditions in Greece. The results of the present study revealed that the investment was estimated at 4,960,044 €. Net profit in the first year amounted to 3,584,621.70 €, while the annual net profits from the second to the tenth year amounted to approximately 7.07 billion. The Net Present Value with a value of 45,425,241.24 € is positive and the internal rate of return (IRR) is 94.14%, which means that the investment can be characterized as profitable.
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