We analyze the e¤ects of changes in the mortality rate upon life expectancy, education, retirement age, human capital and growth in the presence of social security. We build a vintage growth, overlapping generations model in which individuals choose the time length of education and retirement age, and where unfunded social security pensions depend on workers'past contributions. Social security has a positive e¤ect on education, but pension bene…ts favor reductions in retirement age. The net e¤ect is that starting from a benchmark case, higher life expectancies give rise to lower growth rates in the presence of social security as the share of active population is reduced. In addition, higher social security contribution rates reduce the growth rate.JEL Classi…cation Numbers: O40, H55, J10
This paper analyzes the effects that the Arab Spring and the subsequent revolution had on per capita real Gross Domestic Product in Egypt. The estimation procedure that we follow is the Synthetic Control Method. After comparing the observed evolution of Egyptian real output in the period 2011-2017 with that of synthetic Egypt, our estimates show i ) an accumulated loss in the growth rate of per capita real Gross Domestic Product of 12.04% (a yearly average of 1.56%); ii ) an accumulated loss in the per capita real Gross Domestic Product of 6,279.7 dollars (a yearly average of 897.1 dollars); and iii ) an accumulated loss in the aggregate real Gross Domestic Product of 582.5 billion dollars (a yearly average of 83.2 billion dollars) Keywords Case Study • Synthetic Control Method • Treatment Effect • Arab Spring • Egypt.
I analyze how changes in life expectancy affect retirement age, education time, and growth rates of economies. I set up a continuous time, overlapping generations model of endogenous growth with externalities in human capital production. I find that increases in life expectancy give rise to first, higher retirement ages and second, higher education spans. A threshold level for life expectancy exists such that per capita growth rates follow an inverted U pattern.
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