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Purpose. Establishing regularities of change in the injury probability and development of a methodology for determining the injury probability of coal mine workers to improve the occupational health and safety (OSH) management system efficiency. Methods. Methods of mathematical statistics and mathematical analysis were used in the data processing of coal mine workers’ injuries; probability theory and risk theory were applied for setting equations to determine the injury probability; correlation and regression analysis were used to determine the density and nature of the dependences reflecting changes in the injury probability. Findings. A calculator has been developed to compute the injury probability of an employee. This instrument distributes the probability into three “zones”: high probability – “red zone”, medium probability – “yellow zone”, and low probability – “green zone”. The injury probability for all employees of the mine administration was calculated. It was found that the clo-sest relationship between the number of injuries and the calculated probability is observed for mining sites (medium probability) and for tunneling sites (high probability). For employees with a calculated high injury probability, in most cases, the causes of injury were objective and less dependent on employees themselves. For employees with a medium probability, the causes independent of and dependent on employees were approximately equally correlated. In the case of employees with a low probability, the main reasons were subjective – dependent on the employees themselves. For employees in the main operational sites (mining and tunneling), the cause of injury is directly related to the specifics of the production operations performed: the presence of loose space. Originality. For the first time, relationships were determined between the injury probability and the profession. We also established relationships between experience at the enterprise, age, marital status of an employee and the injury causes, as well as between the actual number of injuries and the calculated injury probability. Practical implications. A method for determining the injury probability of coal mine workers has been developed and implemented. The ways of improving the methods for calculating the injury probability are determined.

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