-Context -Transplantation is the only cure for decompensated cirrhosis. Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) is used in liver allocation. Objectives -Comparing survival of enlisted populations in pre-and post-MELD eras and estimating their long-term survival. Methods -This is a retrospective study of cirrhotics enlisted for transplantation during pre-and post-MELD eras. Survival curves were generated using Kaplan-Meier's model. Cox's model was used to determine risk factors for mortality. Exponential, Weibull's, normal-log and Gompertz's models were used to estimate long-term survival. Results -The study included 162 patients enlisted in pre-MELD era and 184 in post-MELD period. Kaplan-Meier's survival curve of patients enlisted in post-MELD era was better than that of pre-MELD period (P = 0.009). This difference remained for long-term estimates, with a survival of 53.54% in 5 years and 44.64% in 10 years for patients enlisted in post-MELD era and of 43.17% and 41.75% for pre-MELD period. Era in which patients had been enlisted (P = 0.010) and MELD score at enlistment (P<0.001) were independently associated to survival with hazard ratios of 0.664 (95% CI-confidence interval = 0.487-0.906) and 1.069 (95% CI = 1.043-1.095). Conclusion -MELDbased transplantation policy is superior to chronology-based one, promoting better survival for enlisted patients, even in long-term.
Fatores de risco para falência do transplante ortotópico de fígado com doador cadáver foram investigados em estudo longitudinal retrospectivo com informações da Central Estadual de Transplantes e prontuário clínico de residentes no Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil, submetidos, após os 15 anos de idade, pela primeira vez, a esse transplante de janeiro de 1999 a julho de 2003 (n = 313). Houve 13% de falências (n = 41) no primeiro mês, 11% (n = 34) de 2 a 12 meses e 5% (n = 17) após esse período; 88% das falências resultaram em óbito, 12%, em retransplante. Nos modelos multivariados, a taxa de falência foi maior para renda familiar menor que dez salários-mínimos, idade maior que 45 anos, cor não branca, mau estado geral à época do transplante e doador com 56 anos ou mais. Gênero feminino evidenciou efeito apenas no modelo bruto, perdendo o efeito no modelo multivariado. Apoio social, com complementação de renda e pronto diagnóstico com ingresso na lista em boas condições clínicas, pode favorecer o sucesso do transplante hepático.
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