The formation of a balanced system of parameters (budget; duration of implementation; customers and developers' satisfaction with the results of the project the course of the project) is a critical factor in the successful implementation of the project. Development of the formal models, which described the direct and cross-linking relationship between the input (budget, implementation time) and output (customer and developer satisfaction) parameters of the project creates the conditions for increasing the validity of decisions related to the project organization. The feature of empirical models constructing is the need to share actual (historical) data about budgets and the previously implemented projects duration, and subjective estimates (determined by experience) of consumers and developers. The paper considers the approach for the construction of parametric regression models based on the joint use of measured data and expert estimates. The additive or multiplicative form of interaction of direct and cross-linking relationship is substantiated, this depend on which target group (consumers or developers) are assigned the outputs of a multivariable object.
At present, the quality of information support for management is becoming a critical factor in the implementation of the provisions of the Industry 4.0 doctrine, due to which the need to improve the theoretical provisions for managing organizational defects in the implementation of projects for creating hardware and software components of the digital ecoenvironment becomes especially significant. The paper considers a formal model that creates the basis for the formation of a balanced system of the main characteristics of the project, for the case when satisfaction with the properties of the product on the part of the customer and satisfaction with the progress of the project on the part of the contractor are equally important. The basis for the formation of a balanced system of project characteristics is its consideration as a static multi-connected control object. Empirical functional dependencies correspond to direct and cross connections between the input and output parameters of the object. A feature of constructing empirical models is the use of both actual data on budgets and the duration of previously implemented projects, and subjective expert assessments of project participants. The procedure for forming a balanced system of project characteristics is formalized, which makes it possible to automate it. The proposed approach makes it possible to increase the validity of decisions on the feasibility of implementing the project by the forces of the proposed contractor, taking into account the priority of the budget and the duration of the project for the customer.
Рассматривается метод построения статистических моделей многосвязных объектов в виде многомерных регрессионных зависимостей на основе совместного использования измерительных данных и экспертных оценок. Основная идея метода заключается в преобразовании независимо полученных экспертных оценок и измерительных данных к единому виду -закону распределения непрерывной случайной величины. Это делает возможным сформировать корреляционную таблицу на основе решения обратной задачи определения закона распределения функции случайного аргумента. Сформированная корреляционная таблица служит основой построения регрессионной зависимости известными методами регрессионного анализа. Главным результатом работы является впервые предложенный метод построения многомерных регрессионных зависимостей за счѐт совместного использования экспертных оценок и измерительных данных.
Formation of characteristic balanced system of program project is a critical factor in the successful implementation of the project. This paper describes the formal procedure for evaluating the budget and project duration values, that provide the best correlation between customer satisfaction of project results and project actors. The project is presented as a multivariable control object. Empirical functional dependencies correspond to direct and cross-linking of multivariable object. The feature of empirical models constructing is the need to share actual (historical) data about budgets and the previously implemented projects duration, and subjective estimates (determined by experience) of consumers and developers. An original approach is used to build the empirical models that correspond to direct and cross-links of multivariable object based on the joint use of expert estimates and historical measurement data of various volumes corresponding to previously implemented projects. The proposed approach makes it possible to increase the validity of decisions about the reasonableness of project implementation, taking into account the potential of the implementing organization, budget restrictions and project duration. The proposed procedure is formalized, this allows us to get stable estimates of the project characteristics.
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