While nuclear power may experience a technological breakthrough in Europe with Generation IV nuclear reactors within a few decades (2040), several events and drivers could question this possibility, e.g. the Fukushima accident, climate issues and liberalization of the electricity market.This article analyzes how the conditions necessary for their industrial development from now up to 2040 can be either favorable or detrimental to future nuclear reactors compared with other technologies and according to four main investment drivers: 1) technical change, 2) policy, 3) market, and 4) power company drivers.Twenty-four scenarios have been identified through structural analysis, with only three proving to be favorable to the development of future nuclear reactors.