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and participants in conferences organized by CREAM, the Econometric Society, SED, and SoCCAM for helpful comments. The views expressed in the paper are our own and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Board, Yale University, NBER, IZA, or other members of their staffs. We are responsible for the remaining shortcomings of the paper. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.