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Large fluctuations in the trends of Pacific salmon production in this century have been linked to trends in climate in the Pacific that are in turn associated with climate trends throughout the Northern Hemisphere. The close correspondence in the persistence of climate trends and the synchrony of the changes is evidence that a common event may cause the regime shifts. The trends or regimes can be characterized by stable means in physical data series or multiyear periods of linked recruitment patterns in fish populations. The regime concept is important in fisheries management because the natural shifts in abundance may be large and sudden, requiring that these natural impacts be distinguished from fishing effects. An equally important consideration is that biological and physical mechanisms may change when regimes shift, resulting in conditions that may not be characterized in the earlier part of the data series. Fluctuations in Pacific salmon abundance in this century were synchronous with large fluctuations in Japanese sardine abundance, which can be traced back to the early 1600's. The synchrony in the fluctuations suggests that Pacific salmon abundance may have fluctuated for centuries in response to trends in climate. The concept of regimes and regime shifts stresses the need to improve our understanding of the mechanisms that regulate the dynamics of fish and their ecosystems.

The percentage of hatchery-reared coho salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch in the Strait of Georgia, British Columbia, increased from nearly 0% in the early 1970s to more than 70% by 2001. These estimates were derived from fin clip and coded wire tag data collected from commercial and sport fisheries, research surveys conducted in the summer and fall of 1997 to 2000, and examination of the microstructure of otoliths extracted from juvenile coho salmon collected during our marine surveys. The increasing trend may be related to the proportions of hatchery and wild smolts entering saltwater, fishing rates, and changes in the ecological processes regulating coho salmon production in the ocean. The consequence for management is that the abundance of wild spawning salmon (escapement) depends on hatchery as well as wild production. The consequence for policy makers is that future enhancement activities need to have clear policies for assessing the effects of hatchery fish on the population dynamics of wild fish as well as for producing hatchery fish.

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The marine survival of juvenile coho salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch from the time they enter the Strait of Georgia in mid‐May to the time of our trawl survey in mid‐September declined from an average of about 15% in 1998 to approximately 1% in 2007. Early marine survival rates for juvenile coho salmon have been consistently low (<5%) since 2002, and the rate of decline in early marine survival was greater for hatchery fish than for wild fish. This suggests that hatchery coho salmon are perhaps less able to survive than wild fish in the current marine ecosystem. The steady decline in total marine survival for coho salmon over the past four decades coincided with a warming of the Strait of Georgia, where both sea surface and sea bottom temperatures have increased by approximately 1°C since 1970. Another factor that appears to have contributed to the decline in early marine survival since the late 1990s is an increase in the number of days with an average sustained wind strength greater than 25 km/h. The linkage between wind strength and marine survival requires further study, but wind strength is known to affect the timing and level of primary productivity. The processes that caused the declining marine survival remain to be identified and may include factors associated with disease originating in both freshwater and salt water, metabolic stress, competition, and predation. The data suggest that coho salmon brood year strength is now mostly determined during the first 4 months spent in the Strait of Georgia. If the current low levels of marine survival continue, management initiatives to protect wild coho salmon will be urgently required, and it will be timely to critically evaluate the hatchery programs and policies.