The holistic development of companies is carried out at three levels. (Figure 1)On the strategic level, the company decides about its vision. This includes basic and normative objectives-e.g. in the form of business principles-as well as fundamental strategic objectives like positioning and core competencies.On the tactical level, the vision is put into a business model and detailed roadmaps. Hence, objectives are substantiated, strategy, product, or technology roadmaps are designed, and the behavior within competition is simulated.On the operative level, this guideline is implemented by concrete planning. Business plans are developed, investment decisions are made, risks are identified and evaluated and crises are managed.On all three levels, future developments have to be taken into account. However, the necessary instruments differ from each other, whereas their development can be looked at from a bottom-up perspective:On the operative level, it is necessary to get a clear picture of the future on a short-term basis. Therefore, mainly quantitative and extrapolation-based prognoses are used.On the tactical level, this kind of description of the future is inadequate or is simply not feasible. Hence, expected or already visible mid-term changes must be identified in the form of trends, and considered when making the decision.On the strategic level, even trend considerations do not prove sufficient. As a result, several alternative future images have to be considered, while at the same time coherences between factors and trends must be taken into account. Therefore, at this level, scenarios are the core foresight instrument.The term "scenario" is used to describe a variety of different objects-from simple alternative projections ("the high-price-scenario") to results of complex simulation-models. In this article, we use the term "scenario" only for future images that
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