Ukraine, the United Kingdom, and the United States for helpful suggestions. The authoring team is also grateful to Tobias Adrian, Aditya Narain, and Miguel Savastano for providing intellectual direction, and to Thais Ferreira and Mireille Nsanzimana for excellent support to the project.The Departmental Paper Series presents research by IMF staff on issues of broad regional or crosscountry interest. The views expressed in this pape are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.