We would like to thank Luca Dedola, Kenza Benhima, Celine Poilly, and seminar participants at the University of Lausanne, ETH Zurich, and participants at the ECB conference "Nonlinearities in macroeconomics and finance in light off crises" and the UVA-Richmond Fed research conference for helpful comments and suggestions. We gratefully acknowledge financial support from the Bankard Fund for Political Economy and the ERC Advanced Grant #269573. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peerreviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.

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