Gaining knowledge of how ecosystems provide essential services to humans is of primary importance, especially with the current threat of climate change. Yet little is known about how increased temperature will impact the biodiversity-ecosystem functioning (BEF) relationship. We tackled this subject theoretically and experimentally. We developed a BEF theory based on mechanistic population dynamic models, which allows the inclusion of the effect of temperature. Using experimentally established relationships between attack rate and temperature, the model predicts that temperature increase will intensify competition, and consequently the BEF relationship will flatten or even become negative. We conducted a laboratory experiment with natural microbial microcosms, and the results were in agreement with the model predictions. The experimental results also revealed that an increase in both temperature average and variation had a more intense effect than an increase in temperature average alone. Our results indicate that under climate change, high diversity may not guarantee high ecosystem functioning.

Understanding how trophic levels respond to changes in abiotic and biotic conditions is key for predicting how food webs will react to environmental perturbations. Different trophic levels may respond disproportionately to change, with lower levels more likely to react faster, as they typically consist of smaller‐bodied species with higher reproductive rates. This response could cause a mismatch between trophic levels, in which predators and prey will respond differently to changing abiotic or biotic conditions. This mismatch between trophic levels could result in altered top‐down and bottom‐up control and changes in interaction strength. To determine the possibility of a mismatch, we conducted a reciprocal‐transplant experiment involving Sarracenia purpurea food webs consisting of bacterial communities as prey and a subset of six morphologically similar protozoans as predators. We used a factorial design with four temperatures, four bacteria and protozoan biogeographic origins, replicated four times. This design allowed us to determine how predator and prey dynamics were altered by abiotic (temperature) conditions and biotic (predators paired with prey from either their local or non‐local biogeographic origin) conditions. We found that prey reached higher densities in warmer temperature regardless of their temperature of origin. Conversely, predators achieved higher densities in the temperature condition and with the prey from their origin. These results confirm that predators perform better in abiotic and biotic conditions of their origin while their prey do not. This mismatch between trophic levels may be especially significant under climate change, potentially disrupting ecosystem functioning by disproportionately affecting top‐down and bottom‐up control.

Dispersal is key for maintaining biodiversity at local- and regional scales in metacommunities. However, little is known about the combined effects of dispersal and climate change on biodiversity. Theory predicts that alpha-diversity is maximized at intermediate dispersal rates, resulting in a hump-shaped diversity-dispersal relationship. This relationship is predicted to flatten when competition increases. We anticipate that this same flattening will occur with increased temperature because, in the rising part of the temperature performance curve, interspecific competition is predicted to increase. We explored this question using aquatic communities of Sarracenia purpurea from early- and late-successional stages, in which we simulated four levels of dispersal and four temperature scenarios. With increased dispersal, the hump shape was observed consistently in late successional communities, but only in higher temperature treatments in early succession. Increased temperature did not flatten the hump-shape relationship, but decreased the level of alpha- and gamma-diversity. Interestingly, higher temperatures negatively impacted small-bodied species. These metacommunity-level extinctions likely relaxed interspecific competition, which could explain the absence of flattening of the diversity-dispersal relationship. Our findings suggest that climate change will cause extinctions both at local- and global- scales and emphasize the importance of intermediate levels of dispersal as an insurance for local diversity.