; Šikoparija, Branko; Weryszko-Chmielewska, Elżbieta; Bullock, James M. 2016. Modelling the introduction and spread of non-native species: international trade and climate change drive ragweed invasion. Global Change Biology, 22 (9). 3067-3079. 10.1111/gcb.13220 Contact CEH NORA team at noraceh@ceh.ac.ukThe NERC and CEH trademarks and logos ('the Trademarks') are registered trademarks of NERC in the UK and other countries, and may not be used without the prior written consent of the Trademark owner. Accepted ArticleThis article has been accepted for publication and undergone full peer review but has not been through the copyediting, typesetting, pagination and proofreading process, which may lead to differences between this version and the Version of Record. Please cite this article as doi: 10.1111/gcb.13220 This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. Running-title:Integrating introduction and spread in the modelling of invasion AbstractBiological invasions are a major driver of global change, for which models can attribute causes, assess impacts and guide management. However, invasion models typically focus on spread from known introduction points or non-native distributions and ignore the transport processes by which species

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The objective of this study was to analyse the dynamics of the Alnus and Corylus pollen seasons in Poland with reference to spatial and seasonal differentiation. Aerobiological monitoring was performed in 10 cities, in 1994-2007. Five characteristics defining the pollen season were considered: 1. beginning and end dates of the season phases (5, 25, 50, 75, 95% of annual totals), 2. pollen season duration (90% method), 3. skewness and 4. kurtosis of airborne pollen curves, and 5. annual pollen totals. The beginning of the Corylus pollen season in Warsaw started on the 53rd day of a year. The Alnus pollen season started 9.5 days (SE = 1.4) later. The start of the season for both taxa was delayed by 3.3 (SE = 0.5) days for each 100 km towards the east. The Corylus pollen season lasted about 15 days longer than the Alnus season. Season duration for both taxa decreased towards the east by 3.5 days (SE = 0.7) and towards the north by 1.3 days (SE = 0.6) for each 100 km. Seasonal dynamics of both taxa are skewed to the right. In cities located west of Warsaw the dynamics are more skewed (except at Szczecin, Wroclaw). Asymmetry decreases towards the east by 0.16/100 km. Almost all kurtosis values of pollen-season dynamics were positive and higher for Alnus. Kurtosis values for both taxa increase together with delay of the pollen season beginning by 4% per day (p \ 0.0001). Mean pollen total increases: for Corylus mainly towards the north (by 64%/100 km), for Alnus mainly towards the west (by 15%/100 km). Geographical location (longitude and latitude) determines: the start and duration of the pollen season, skewness of the pollen curve, and annual totals.

Studies on Ambrosia pollen concentrations were carried out in Lublin in the period [1995][1996][1997][1998][1999][2000][2001][2002][2003][2004]. The effects of a number of meteorological factors were analysed. In the first period of the study, the gravimetric method was used (1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999), while in the second period, the volumetric method was applied. The results show an increasing trend in the amount of airborne pollen. The Ambrosia pollen season in Lublin lasts from August to October. Over a period of 5 years, the highest number of pollen grains was recorded in September (53%), followed by August (44%) and October (3%). There were wide variations in annual totals. The annual total pollen counts was 167-1180 grains, with the peak value in 2002. Maximum daily pollen concentrations (56-312 pollen grains m )3 ) were recorded in the first half of August and in the first half of September. On the days when high Ambrosia pollen concentrations occurred, the temperature was above 21°C and the winds were mainly from the southeast, south and east. Maximum intradiurnal concentrations of pollen grains occurred in the afternoon hours. These results indicate, to some degree, that Ambrosia pollen is transported for long distances before descent.

The aim of the study was to determine the characteristics of temporal and space–time autocorrelation of pollen counts of Alnus, Betula, and Corylus in the air of eight cities in Poland. Daily average pollen concentrations were monitored over 8 years (2001–2005 and 2009–2011) using Hirst-designed volumetric spore traps. The spatial and temporal coherence of data was investigated using the autocorrelation and cross-correlation functions. The calculation and mathematical modelling of 61 correlograms were performed for up to 25 days back. The study revealed an association between temporal variations in Alnus, Betula, and Corylus pollen counts in Poland and three main groups of factors such as: (1) air mass exchange after the passage of a single weather front (30–40 % of pollen count variation); (2) long-lasting factors (50–60 %); and (3) random factors, including diurnal variations and measurements errors (10 %). These results can help to improve the quality of forecasting models.