Rare earth element (REE) recycling remains low at 1%, despite significant uncertainties related to future supply and demand and EU 2020 energy efficiency objectives. We use a global production network framework of REE flows from mine to REE phosphors in energy-efficient lamps to illustrate the potential of closed-loop recycling for secondary supply under different scenarios of primary supply and forecasted demand for LEDs, CFLs and LFLs. We find that different End-of-Life Recycling Rate scenarios for REE secondary supply range between meeting forecasted REE demand and filling primary supply gaps, and competing with primary supply. Our argument centres on diversifying REE sourcing with recycling and the choice between primary and secondary supply. We stress that secondary REE phosphor supply requires further policy to support lamp collection and a discussion of the value of REE phosphor recycling underlying its economic feasibility.

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