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<p><em>Perkembangan dan penggunaan inovasi teknologi tersebut juga telah mengubah perilaku masyarakat dari masyarakat industri menuju masyarakat informasi. Perubahan tersebut dapat terlihat dengan adanya peningkatan pola konsumsi masyarakat dari perdagangan melalui toko fisik (offline) beralih ke perdagangan melalui sistem elektronik atau sering disebut sebagai e-commerce. Jasa logistik merupakan pemeran distribusi di lini downstream dimana bertugas untuk mengantarkan produk dari fulfillment center dari suatu e-commerce menuju ke end customer. Jasa logistik dituntut harus dapat melakuan pemenuhan permintaan dari konsumen sesuai dengan service level agreement (SLA). Tidak menentunya jumlah permintaan menjadi tantangan yang paling besar bagi pemeran jasa logistik. Seperti studi kasus yang digunakan pada penelitian ini, PT ABC mengalami overload ketika melakukan pemenuhan permintaan dari e-commerce PT XYZ. Overload tersebut dikarenakan ketidaksiapan PT ABC dalam menangani lonjakan permintaan yang signifikan karena perubahan harga jual Produk A di e-commerce PT XYZ. Pada penelitian ini diusulkan model peramalan harga jual Produk A pada e-commerce PT XYZ menggunakan model Simulasi Monte Carlo Independent Variable. Simulasi dilakukan dengan 1.000 percobaan dan menghasilkan MAPE terendah pada percobaan 322, yaitu, 0,122%.</em></p>

Capsicum frutescens is one of the vegetable commodities that can affect the dynamics of the national economy. The dynamics of the national economy is due to significant fluctuations in chili prices in Indonesia at all times. Price fluctuations occur due to lack of information either in the form of demand information or Chilean price information about consumers received by farmers for marketing red pepper. Besides, the length of the distribution of red pepper (farmer- the middleman- wholesaler- retailer- consumer) results in significant price changes from farmers to consumers at each echelon or distribution level. Such price changes result in a decline in the farmer’s share. Farmer’s share has a negative relationship with marketing margins. the negative relationship is the higher the marketing margin, the lower the share received by the farmer. from the explanation, the concept shows that the victims of the length of the distribution channel are farmers and consumers. Where farmers will bear a high business risk, and consumers will get high chili prices. The research will discuss how to stabilize the price of red pepper and improve farmer’s share by making the best decision using discrete simulation using Monte Carlo, so it can determine the supply policy by the distribution at each level aimed at reducing the operational cost. Besides, this can also reduce the hoarding activities undertaken by the relevant distribution. The hoarding can disrupt the stability of the existing chili price.

E-logistics must have better strategy because they must satisfy unpredictable demands which came from customer. Other consumer behaviours which affect e-logistics must work more efficiently are the requirement of last miles fast delivery and more competitive pricing. Decentralized supply chain model can handle all these issues and complex logistics activity although it only has one echelon model in the supply chain structure. Decentralized supply chain model doesn’t need a distribution centre but requires inventory sharing policy. Key to success inventory sharing policy is low lead time delivery. In Indonesia, only two transportation type which can handle product in low lead time, i.e., train cargo and aircraft cargo. Train cargo still needs high lead time but has low operation cost. Aircraft cargo can handle product in low lead time but need high operation cost. The trade-off in this condition is e-logistics need low lead time transportation tenant to satisfy demand until last miles delivery but has low operation cost not as expensive as aircraft cargo. Indonesia is developing high-speed train which connects Jakarta to Surabaya. In this research, we will review the level of effectiveness high-speed train in Indonesia to realized decentralized supply chain distribution network for handling e-logistics last miles shipping using dynamic system simulation. The output of this research is efficiency review of Indonesian high-speed railway cargo to support decentralized e-logistics supply chain distribution network, compared by aircraft cargo. After we perform simulation using dynamic system simulation, delivery of products between regions by using fast train is declared feasible to deliver products with fast delivery type if in one day there are six departure time (delivery batch). If less than six departures, the railway is declared unfeasible to deliver products with fast delivery type. However, the train can save about 37% batch delivery when compared to cargo aircraft.

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