The problems of preserving the natural environment are relevant for unique natural complexes of territories, such as the Baikal region (Russia). There are few studies devoted to forecasting the green economic development of the eco-socio-economic system of the Baikal region. The previous studies are mainly dedicated to the theory of forming the green economy in the Baikal region. This study aimed to forecast and determine future trends in the Baikal region’s eco-socio-economic development based on the green economy. The methodological approach to assess the Baikal region development prospects is based on determining the factors affecting the relationship between various eco-socio-economic components using multiple regression models. We constructed the forecast using the artificial neural networks method, and we assessed the possible impact of anthropogenic factors on the Baikal region’s eco-socio-economic system in the future. Based on the obtained forecast, we proposed a mechanism for regulating the green economy formation in the region. The regional governments of the Baikal region should perform the management function. This requires establishing a special interregional Green Development Fund to restructure incoming public funds by redistributing financial flows from contaminating brown to green industries and develop a state program for the Green Development of the Baikal region. The constructed forecast is informational support for decision making for the long-term development of the economy during the transition to the green economy, the development and justification of program activities, and the future’s main strategic priorities.

Conducting research aimed at establishing the relationship between economic development and non-violation of the environment and developing optimal ways of their interaction is possible only by studying the features of regional development, which requires a comprehensive assessment of the ecological and socio-economic situation of the territories. The Baikal region includes Irkutsk Oblast, Republic of Buryatia, and Zabaykalsky Krai and occupies an exceptional place in Russia, due to Lake Baikal and unique natural features. The results of the assessment of the state of purity and quality of the environment indicate the emerging negative trends associated with water pollution, atmospheric air, and waste disposal in the Baikal region. Therefore, this article proposes the solutions to the problems in achieving sustainable development based on the implementation of the principles of the green economy, providing recommendations on how to reverse the current ecological and socio-economic situation of the Baikal region in a positive direction. Obtained practical assessments are essential for solving the problems of conservation and creating favorable conditions for the life of the population. Implementation of key government regulatory measures and changing existing approaches to managing the region based on the principles of the green economy will reduce the level of anthropogenic pressure on the environment.

Sustainable green development and environment preservation problems are relevant for unique territories with special economic activity modes, such as the Baikal natural territory. Within Russia, the Republic of Buryatia serves as the model territory for the Lake Baikal ecosystem preservation. Determining the socio-economic development impact on the region’s natural environment and resolving contradictions in transition to the green economic development requires the systematization of economic, social, and environmental processes of quantitative information based on the construction of composite indicators. We construct a composite indicator to assess the socio-economic factor’s impact on the Republic of Buryatia’s current economic state and to compare the current environmental subsystem state and the socio-economic parameters of Buryatia to the average Russian level. We use multiple regression models to determine relationships between various environmental-socio-economic parameters and identify the factors that most impact the environmental states (situations). The measures taken to preserve the unique ecosystem of Lake Baikal have an actual effect. This study shows, that according to the accepted scale, the environmental situation in the region can be characterized as a step towards the green economy transition. The proposed sustainable green development criteria and tools assessment system of the Republic may serve as the basis for forming information and analytical support for an effective economic policy.

Under current conditions, the green economy concept has received a comprehensive response in achieving the sustainable development of regions. However, measuring green economic development progress is dynamic, quantitatively characterized by indicators reflecting various aspects. The difficulty lies in a comprehensive environmental sustainability assessment in a context that includes the territory’s environmental, social, and economic factors. The study aimed to assess the progress of the Republic of Buryatia’s (Russia) “green” economic development. The proposed methodology for constructing a composite index is based on five dimensions’ aggregation—resource efficiency, environmental efficiency, environmental quality of life, natural assets, and institutional factors. The composite index helped generalize the complex processes of the region’s environmental–socio–economic development. Its main feature is the reflection of the environmental specificity of the territory. We built a mid-term forecast of the composite and sub-indices, determined their future trend, and assessed the opportunities and conditions for the fastest transition of the Republic of Buryatia to a green economy. The developed composite index is a key tool for regulating green economic development progress, determining prospects, and region management. This paper attempts to fill the gap in a comprehensive assessment of the Republic of Buryatia’s current situation using a composite index.

No abstract