RationaleA quantitative framework to summarize and explain the quasi-stationary population dynamics of unstable phase singularities (PS) and wavelets in human atrial fibrillation (AF) is at present lacking. Building on recent evidence showing that the formation and destruction of PS and wavelets in AF can be represented as renewal processes, we sought to establish such a quantitative framework, which could also potentially provide insight into the mechanisms of spontaneous AF termination.ObjectivesHere, we hypothesized that the observed number of PS or wavelets in AF could be governed by a common set of renewal rate constants λf (for PS or wavelet formation) and λd (PS or wavelet destruction), with steady-state population dynamics modeled as an M/M/∞ birth–death process. We further hypothesized that changes to the M/M/∞ birth–death matrix would explain spontaneous AF termination.Methods and ResultsAF was studied in in a multimodality, multispecies study in humans, animal experimental models (rats and sheep) and Ramirez-Nattel-Courtemanche model computer simulations. We demonstrated: (i) that λf and λd can be combined in a Markov M/M/∞ process to accurately model the observed average number and population distribution of PS and wavelets in all systems at different scales of mapping; and (ii) that slowing of the rate constants λf and λd is associated with slower mixing rates of the M/M/∞ birth–death matrix, providing an explanation for spontaneous AF termination.ConclusionM/M/∞ birth–death processes provide an accurate quantitative representational architecture to characterize PS and wavelet population dynamics in AF, by providing governing equations to understand the regeneration of PS and wavelets during sustained AF, as well as providing insight into the mechanism of spontaneous AF termination.

No abstract

The mechanisms governing cardiac fibrillation remain unclear; however, it most likely represents a form of spatiotemporal chaos with conservative system dynamics. Renewal theory has recently been suggested as a statistical formulation with governing equations to quantify the formation and destruction of wavelets and rotors in fibrillatory dynamics. In this perspective Review, we aim to explain the origin of the renewal theory paradigm in spatiotemporal chaos. The ergodic nature of pattern formation in spatiotemporal chaos is demonstrated through the use of three chaotic systems: two classical systems and a simulation of cardiac fibrillation. The logistic map and the baker's transformation are used to demonstrate how the apparently random appearance of patterns in classical chaotic systems has macroscopic parameters that are predictable in a statistical sense. We demonstrate that the renewal theory approach developed for cardiac fibrillation statistically predicts pattern formation in these classical chaotic systems. Renewal theory provides governing equations to describe the apparently random formation and destruction of wavelets and rotors in atrial fibrillation (AF) and ventricular fibrillation (VF). This statistical framework for fibrillatory dynamics provides a holistic understanding of observed rotor and wavelet dynamics and is of conceptual significance in informing the clinical and mechanistic research of the rotor and multiple-wavelet mechanisms of AF and VF.

No abstract

Background and Objective: Renewal theory is a statistical approach to model the formation and destruction of phase singularities (PS), which occur at the pivots of spiral waves. A common issue arising during observation of renewal processes is an inspection paradox, due to oversampling of longer events. The objective of this study was to characterise the effect of a potential inspection paradox on the perception of PS lifetimes in cardiac fibrillation.Methods: A multisystem, multi-modality study was performed, examining computational simulations (Aliev-Panfilov (APV) model, Courtmanche-Nattel model), experimentally acquired optical mapping Atrial and Ventricular Fibrillation (AF/VF) data, and clinically acquired human AF and VF. Distributions of all PS lifetimes across full epochs of AF, VF, or computational simulations, were compared with distributions formed from lifetimes of PS existing at 10,000 simulated commencement timepoints.Results: In all systems, an inspection paradox led towards oversampling of PS with longer lifetimes. In APV computational simulations there was a mean PS lifetime shift of +84.9% (95% CI, ± 0.3%) (p < 0.001 for observed vs overall), in Courtmanche-Nattel simulations of AF +692.9% (95% CI, ±57.7%) (p < 0.001), in optically mapped rat AF +374.6% (95% CI, ± 88.5%) (p = 0.052), in human AF mapped with basket catheters +129.2% (95% CI, ±4.1%) (p < 0.05), human AF-HD grid catheters 150.8% (95% CI, ± 9.0%) (p < 0.001), in optically mapped rat VF +171.3% (95% CI, ±15.6%) (p < 0.001), in human epicardial VF 153.5% (95% CI, ±15.7%) (p < 0.001).Conclusion: Visual inspection of phase movies has the potential to systematically oversample longer lasting PS, due to an inspection paradox. An inspection paradox is minimised by consideration of the overall distribution of PS lifetimes.