In the context of the national economic turbulence, it becomes important to forecast the social development of constituent entities of the Russian Federation. In order to provide highly accurate forecasting, neural network technologies are used in the research (a Bayesian assembly of the dynamic neural network of various configurations is formed). As a result of the forecasting, it is found, that the leading Russian regions should have a lower social development index in 2016-2017 as compared to 2014-2015. A slowdown of social development is also predicted for the leading regions of the Volga Federal District in 2016-2017, but only as compared to 2015. The obtained data show that the social development index in the Republic of Bashkortostan changes a little. Nevertheless, a significant lagging of Bashkortostan behind the leading regions of the Russian Federation and the Volga Federal District in the social sphere is predicted: Bashkortostan is a competitive region in terms of the living standards, but not in the sphere of scientific research and innovations. For this reason, measures encouraging innovative development of Russian regions as exemplified by the Republic of Bashkortostan are introduced and discussed in the paper.

Relevance: The train drivers are responsible for the safety of transported people and goods. Therefore, medical monitoring of their state of health is an integral part of ensuring the safety of railway traffic.Purpose: to study the possibilities of using a pulsogram for analyzing the parameters of heart rate variability during pre-trip health examination of members of train crews.Materials and methods: 183 male train crew members (106 engine train drivers, 77 train drivers’ assistants) were examined; the average age was 37.7 ± 9.4 years. ECG and pulsogram were measured simultaneously, and heart rate variability was analyzed.Results: A high degree of coincidence of mean values and variances of heart rate variability parameters, calculated on the basis of ECG (electrocardiogram) and pulsogram, was found. A high degree of reliable positive correlation was established between these parameters. Significant differences in the parameters of heart rate variability were revealed between the members of train crews who underwent and those who did not undergo the first-time pre-trip medical examination.Conclusion: Measurements of heart rate variability parameters based on the pulsogram can be used to solve a number of urgent problems of pre-trip medical examination of members of train crews.