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Access to clean and affordable energy is critical for the realization of the United Nations’ Millennium Development Goals, or MDGs. In many developing countries, a large proportion of household energy requirements is met by use of non-commercial fuels such as wood, animal dung, crop residues, etc., and the associated health and environmental hazards of these are well documented. In this work, a scenario analysis of energy requirements in Nigeria’s households is carried out to compare estimates between 2005 and 2020 under a reference scenario, with estimates under the assumption that Nigeria will meet the millennium goals. Requirements for energy under the MDG scenario are measured by the impacts on energy use, of a reduction by half, in 2015, (a) the number of household without access to electricity for basic services, (b) the number of households without access to modern energy carriers for cooking, and (c) the number of families living in one-room households in Nigeria’s overcrowded urban slums. For these to be achieved, household electricity consumption would increase by about 41% over the study period, while the use of modern fuels would more than double. This migration to the use of modern fuels for cooking results in a reduction in the overall fuelwood consumption, from 5 GJ/capita in 2005, to 2.9 GJ/capita in 2015.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/2193-1801-2-529) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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