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Purpose This paper aims to provide a strategic analysis of firms at the lowest hierarchical levels of the defence industry. Design/methodology/approach This paper presents the main results of an exploratory, multiple-case study that analyses the current strategy drivers and their views about the future ones, and their impact at the lowest hierarchical levels of the defence industry in Spain. Findings This investigation develops and analyses a contingency model regarding the strategy impact and effects of firms’ drivers and clients, both mediated by the strategy players because of their huge impact on the defence industry. The research model focuses on the internal relations between technical and commercial activities due to the cause and effect of their capabilities. Simultaneously, pull and push mechanisms boost firms’ capabilities and requirements to provide strategic foresight. Practical implications Ministries of Defence (MoDs) and prime contractors will remain mediating players in the near future even with further implications for the competition of Defence Technological and Industrial Base (DTIB) firms. It implies that firms and MoDs must maintain a close relation and implement more flexible practices, such as open innovation, property rights or new commercialization schemes. Originality/value This study offers insights related to the specific applications and the necessity of commercial and technological areas alignment of these firms for the future.