Foresight studies are regularly conducted at sectoral or geographical scales, in order to help policy makers and economic actors to define their strategy of adaptation to climate change (CC).

Abstract. The current challenges of the agronomic research and in particular the adaptation of agriculture to climate change, require a very broad disciplinary mobilization. To meet these challenges, which go beyond its disciplinary and territorial organization, the INRA initiated a new system of interdisciplinary piloting of research. Thus, the métaprogramme ACCAF is trying to understand the joint effects of the various modifications caused by climate change on terrestrial farming and natural environments, and to define adaptation strategies of adaptation as well as their environmental and socio-economic consequences. Within this framework, twenty-three research laboratories have been collaborating in the project LACCAVE and united their efforts in the project LACCAVE in order to examine the effects of climate change on the vine and wine sector. In addition to six disciplinary working groups, this project is made up of an interdisciplinary group including researchers and experts of public institution working with the sector, which has carried out a foresight exercise. By directing the reflection towards a medium-long term future , this prospective exercise authorizes us to leave the temporal horizon of the negotiation and the dictatorship of emergency. As the long-term future is neither known nor recognizable, the evolutions are considered as combinations of assumptions expressed in one potential form and its opposite. For the prospective in the LACCAVE program, four strategies of adaptation of viticulture for 2030-2050 were predefined and a collective and pluridisciplinary work made possible the writing of a plausible way of events leading to each strategy. These results will then be used to debate with the actors of the wine sector at various geographical levels, in order to contribute to the development and the consolidation of choices of strategies of adaptation of the vineyards to climate change. The presentation will focus on this original methodology and its specific implementation. Stories are detailed in another article "Work of prospective on the adaptation of the viticulture to climate change: which series of events could support various adaptation strategies?"

Revue en ligne : https://journals.openedition.org/norois/ www.pur-editions.fr Note de recherche La filière Vigne et Vin face au changement climatique : enseignements d'un forum de prospective pour le Val de Loire The Vine and Wine sector confronting by the climate change: lessons from a prospective forum for the Loire Valley

Abstract.A multidisciplinary group of researchers and experts of public bodies working on the French wine sector met together to elaborate a foresight exercice with the construction of the plausible ways leading to four different adaptation strategies to climate change of the French wine sector to climate change. For the implementation of this work, the group, considered a single climatic scenario and -difined four strategies of adaptation incorporating both geographical mobility and of integration of technological changes, -used assumptions from three sources: assumptions from researchers of various disciplines in their own disciplinary field, pre-existing assumptions from former foresight works and assumptions defined according to the statements of actors of the sector on the impacts of climate change and on the possible methods of adaptation. All these assumptions were written in the form of simple sentences, giving one version and its contrary. The various assumptions were selected and then combined between them in order to create a blend within the disciplinary fields, without however inferring of orientation. The result of this work is the join-construction of four plausible ways each one leading to one of the four preselected strategies of adaptation: "conservative" strategy where the evolutions are limited, a "nomade" strategy where the relocalisation of the vineyards is the main vector of adaptation, an "innovating" strategy where the adaptation is the result of the systematic integration of innovations, and finally towards a "liberal" strategy largely opened to any kind of changes. These ways and strategies are not supposed to give a predictive image of the future. However while proposing possible or plausible futures, this work provides material which could be debated within the sector, without immediate challenges that could possibly bias the discussion From the expression of the challenges and consequences of the various ways and strategies in which they result, the actors of the French wine sector will be able to start a strategic reflection. The presentation will be focused on the description of the four ways leading to adaptation strategies and their elaboration. Methodology is specified in another article "Adaptation to the climate change: interest of a prospective approach", same authors.A l'horizon 2050, les vignobles français et leurs filières vont devoir s'adapter au changement climatique, qui modifieraà la fois les conditions de production des vins, leurs caractéristiques organoleptiques et leurs marchés. A cetteéchéance, d'autres facteurs tels que lesévolutions des préoccupations de santé et d'environnement, les changements géopolitiques ou technologiques, les nouvelles conditions de consommation du vin ou encore les modifications de politique agricole affecteront le secteur vitivinicole.Comment les acteurs de la vigne et du vin pourront-ils s'adapterà un contexte où le changement climatique va se combinerà des changements socio-économiques souvent incertains ? Les leviers d'adaptation env...