This paper argues that theory of change can be used to help stakeholders in agricultural research for development projects collectively agree on problems and visions of success. This helps them feel greater ownership for their project, motivation to achieve outcomes, and understanding of how to do so. However, the dynamic is damaged if projects are pushed to be too specific too early about the outcomes for which they are to be held accountable. This is most likely to happen when system response to project intervention is uncertain, as opposed to projects that work with existing pathways and partnerships where the role of research is well established.

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We assessed an impact of bay leaf value chain intervention programme on household welfare in mountain agroforestry context. We used primary survey data from project and comparison villages and propensity score matching for creating a valid counterfactual. Results indicate that households in the project villages planted 75 per cent more bay leaf trees, produced 170 per cent more bay leaves and sold more quality products at higher prices than households in comparison villages; percapita household income increased by NPR 5000-7300, share of bay leaf income in total household income increased by 8-10 per cent and level of poverty declined by 6-8 per cent. Households with female respondents benefited more in some aspects but not so in others, especially in enrolling children in school. ARTICLE HISTORY

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