No abstract

This paper uses the Gonzalo-Granger price discovery method to determine whether wheat prices are primarily discovered in the Northern Hemisphere or Southern Hemisphere and whether the price discovery process changes throughout the calendar year. Testing U.S. hard red winter prices against Argentina's wheat price we find that the United States dominates the price discovery process 7 months of the year. Testing U.S Portland soft white prices against Australia's wheat price we find that both countries play a significant role in price discovery but the relative country contribution to price formation varies throughout the year. We also find that the price discovery process changes over time. 1 The United States accounts for approximately 20%-30% of the world's wheat exports, Australia 10%, and Argentina 6%-9%. Yet Argentina and Australia are dominant exporters from the Southern Hemisphere (Do, et al., 2009). These two countries also have a more dominant position in the type of wheat (hard red and soft white, respectively) that they export. U.S. exports have averaged approximately 26-32 million metric tons a year, generating approximately 5-11 billion dollars a year. 2 A Haugh test correlates the errors from the autoregressive model on each price. Haugh showed that standard statistical methods can be used to test error correlations at mixed lags (Haugh, 1972).

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No abstract

A national and interregional programming model is analyzing the effects of banning Chlordane and Heptachlor from U.S. agriculture. The model has sectors for land and water resources, crop and livestock production, commodity transportation and domestic and foreign demand. The central Corn Belt would be put at some disadvantage and lose production to other regions. Soybeans and small grains would replace corn on low lands and the imputed values of this land would decline. Crop rotations would include somewhat less corn.