Returns in financial assets display consistent excess kurtosis and skewness, implying the presence of large fluctuations not forecasted by Gaussian models. This paper applies a resampling method based on the bootstrap and a bias-correction step to improve Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasting ability of the n-EGARCH (normal EGARCH) model and correct the VaR for both long and short positions. Our aim is to utilize the advantages of this model, but still use the bootstrap resampling method to accurate for the tendency of the model tomiscalculate the VaR. Empirical results indicate that the bias-correction method can improve the n-GARCH and n-EGARCH VaR forecasts so much that the acquired VaR predictions are different from the proposed probability. Additionally, allowing asymmetry in the conditional variance using the EGARCH model with normal distribution instead of GARCH improves the performance of the bias-correction method in forecasting the VaR for almost all considered indices. Moreover, the bias-corrected n-EGARCH model performs better than the simple t-EGARCH model. Thus, it seems that this model can take account of both the asymmetry in the conditional variance and leptokurtosis in returns distribution. However, we find that the superiority of the bias-corrected n-EGARCH model over the t-EGARCH model is not completely confirmed for short positions based on the censored likelihood scoring rule. IntroductionSince the Basle Committee (1995; began allowing banks to implement internal VaR models for calculating capital requirements, various methods have been proposed to achieve this purpose. However, the theoretical and computational complexity of these methods has also been raised.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
customersupport@researchsolutions.com
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.