The value associated with an improved variable renewable energy (VRE) forecast has been quantified in this research. The value of improved VRE forecasts can increase with increasing VRE penetration levels as well as the range of this value becoming wider. This value also saturates with high levels of improved VRE forecasts as there is relatively lower impact of improving VRE forecasts further. This paper discusses how the improvement of VRE forecasting could impact the South African power system and representative United States power system jurisdictions.

The wind capacity factor calculator is developed to perform two main tasks: to estimate the annual energy production from the wind resource at any location in South Africa, and to compare the two datasets used in its operation with standard error analysis to determine whether both datasets are suitable for use. This paper focuses on how the software was developed and on error analysis between the CSIR PV/ wind aggregation study data and the latest Wind Atlas for South Africa data. The results will indicate the way forward after determining whether the error found between the two datasets is significant enough to replace the former with latter, going forward.