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Forecasting the length of the menstrual cycle and of its phases is an important problem in infertility management and natural family planning. Using repeated measurements of the length of the entire cycle and of the preovular phase provided by a large English database, we describe a Bayesian hierarchical dynamic approach to the problem. A state-space process is used to model the temporal behavior of the series of lengths for each woman. The individual processes are then embedded into a multivariate system through a Bayesian hierarchy in which model parameters are allowed to vary across subjects according to a specified probability distribution. The most interesting features of the suggested method are (a) it takes into account explicitly the temporal nature of the available data and (b) if combined with a fecundability model, it can be used to forecast the probability of conception in future cycles as a function of any intercourse behavior.

Long-term results and statistical analysis of prognostic factors in a series of 214 patients with distant metastases from differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) are reported here. These 214 were part of a total series of 1457 patients with DTC referred to our center from 1967 to 1987. All patients underwent surgery and 131-I therapy and were treated with TSH suppressive doses of thyroid hormones. After a mean follow-up of 7.3 years including clinical, scintigraphic, radiological and laboratory investigations, 24.4% of patients were alive without disease, 36.5% alive with disease, 1.8% dead without disease and 37.3% dead with disease. One of the main factors influencing the survival in our series was 131-I uptake (RIU) by metastatic tissue. No case of complete remission of disease was observed among patients with nonfunctioning metastases. Another important factor was the site of metastases, patients with bone metastases having the worst prognosis. The patient's age at diagnosis represented another important factor for survival; patients over 40 years, particularly those over 60 years had a bad prognosis. A clear interrelation was found among the factors advanced age, nonfunctioning metastases and bone metastases. Patients with these last clinical features were considered to be at high risk and generally had a fatal outcome. Another significant prognostic factor revealed by univariate analysis was the histologic type. Patients with follicular tumor showed a poorer prognosis in comparison to papillary tumor. When multivariate analysis was applied, the factors age at diagnosis, site of metastases and RIU proved to have a significant influence on survival, but not the histologic type. Lastly, the relative rate of males was higher in the group of patients with metastases in comparison to the whole series of DTC patients. Despite this, the factor sex did not influence survival.