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Partitioning ocean flows into regions dynamically distinct from their surroundings based on material transport can assist search-and-rescue planning by reducing the search domain. The spectral clustering method partitions the domain by identifying fluid particle trajectories that are similar. The partitioning validity depends on the accuracy of the ocean forecasting, which is subject to several sources of uncertainty: model initialization, limited knowledge of the physical processes, boundary conditions, and forcing terms. Instead of a single model output, multiple realizations are produced spanning a range of potential outcomes, and trajectory clustering is used to identify robust features and quantify the uncertainty of the ensemble-averaged results. First, ensemble statistics are used to investigate the cluster sensitivity to the spectral clustering method free-parameters and the forecast parameters for the analytic Bickley jet, a geostrophic flow model. Then, we analyze an operational coastal ocean ensemble forecast and compare the clustering results to drifter trajectories south of Martha’s Vineyard. This approach identifies regions of low uncertainty where drifters released within a cluster predominantly remain there throughout the window of analysis. Drifters released in regions of high uncertainty tend to either enter neighboring clusters or deviate from all predicted outcomes.

Monami is the synchronous waving of a submerged seagrass bed in response to unidirectional fluid flow. Here we develop a multiphase model for the dynamical instabilities and flow-driven collective motions of buoyant, deformable seagrass. We show that the impedance to flow due to the seagrass results in an unstable velocity shear layer at the canopy interface, leading to a periodic array of vortices that propagate downstream. Our simplified model, configured for unidirectional flow in a channel, provides a better understanding of the interaction between these vortices and the seagrass bed. Each passing vortex locally weakens the along-stream velocity at the canopy top, reducing the drag and allowing the deformed grass to straighten up just beneath it. This causes the grass to oscillate periodically even in the absence of water waves. Crucially, the maximal grass deflection is out of phase with the vortices. A phase diagram for the onset of instability shows its dependence on the fluid Reynolds number and an effective buoyancy parameter. Less buoyant grass is more easily deformed by the flow and forms a weaker shear layer, with smaller vortices and less material exchange across the canopy top. While higher Reynolds number leads to stronger vortices and larger waving amplitudes of the seagrass, waving amplitude is maximized at intermediate grass buoyancy. All together, our theory and computations develop an updated schematic of the instability mechanism consistent with experimental observations.

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